Comments on: A Hard Rain Gonna Fall http://malcolmpollack.com/2008/10/27/a-hard-rain-gonna-fall/ I go many places... Sat, 04 Sep 2010 21:36:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Pat Goldsmith http://malcolmpollack.com/2008/10/27/a-hard-rain-gonna-fall/comment-page-1/#comment-94177 Pat Goldsmith Mon, 03 Nov 2008 17:28:17 +0000 http://malcolmpollack.com/2008/10/27/a-hard-rain-gonna-fall/#comment-94177 I've been tinckled down upon for so long it looks like up to me, it is relative what we call prosperity... I'll be happy not to be homeless in a month! I’ve been tinckled down upon for so long it looks like up to me, it is relative what we call prosperity…
I’ll be happy not to be homeless in a month!

]]> By: Malcolm http://malcolmpollack.com/2008/10/27/a-hard-rain-gonna-fall/comment-page-1/#comment-94012 Malcolm Tue, 28 Oct 2008 02:07:23 +0000 http://malcolmpollack.com/2008/10/27/a-hard-rain-gonna-fall/#comment-94012 I know mine are... I know mine are…

]]> By: chris g http://malcolmpollack.com/2008/10/27/a-hard-rain-gonna-fall/comment-page-1/#comment-94007 chris g Mon, 27 Oct 2008 20:59:31 +0000 http://malcolmpollack.com/2008/10/27/a-hard-rain-gonna-fall/#comment-94007 That's a scary article. They always put the scary articles out during scary times. Some thoughts/sayings that run wild through my head and parallel his observations: On deleveraging: "A bear market is when stocks return to their rightful owners" On taxation/redistribution of wealth: "Tax rates are irrelevant. We pay taxes when the government spends, not on April 15th when we file a tax return." On your title regarding a Hard Rain Gonna Fall, "Share prices are now saying one of two things about the future, either shares prices are cheap OR guns are cheap" Here's how stocks, bonds and cash fared since the last depression: Annual Returns on Investments in Year Stocks T.Bills T.Bonds 1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% 1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% 1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54% 1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56% 1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% 1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% 1934 -1.19% 0.30% 7.96% 1935 46.74% 0.23% 4.47% 1936 31.94% 0.15% 5.02% 1937 -35.34% 0.12% 1.38% 1938 29.28% 0.11% 4.21% 1939 -1.10% 0.03% 4.41% 1940 -10.67% 0.04% 5.40% 1941 -12.77% 0.02% -2.02% 1942 19.17% 0.33% 2.29% 1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49% 1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58% 1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80% 1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13% 1947 5.20% 0.38% 0.92% 1948 5.70% 0.95% 1.95% 1949 18.30% 1.16% 4.66% 1950 30.81% 1.10% 0.43% 1951 23.68% 1.34% -0.30% 1952 18.15% 1.73% 2.27% 1953 -1.21% 2.09% 4.14% 1954 52.56% 1.60% 3.29% 1955 32.60% 1.15% -1.34% 1956 7.44% 2.54% -2.26% 1957 -10.46% 3.21% 6.80% 1958 43.72% 3.04% -2.10% 1959 12.06% 2.77% -2.65% 1960 0.34% 4.49% 11.64% 1961 26.64% 2.25% 2.06% 1962 -8.81% 2.60% 5.69% 1963 22.61% 2.87% 1.68% 1964 16.42% 3.52% 3.73% 1965 12.40% 3.84% 0.72% 1966 -9.97% 4.38% 2.91% 1967 23.80% 4.96% -1.58% 1968 10.81% 4.97% 3.27% 1969 -8.24% 5.96% -5.01% 1970 3.56% 7.82% 16.75% 1971 14.22% 4.87% 9.79% 1972 18.76% 4.01% 2.82% 1973 -14.31% 5.07% 3.66% 1974 -25.90% 7.45% 1.99% 1975 37.00% 7.15% 3.61% 1976 23.83% 5.44% 15.98% 1977 -6.98% 4.35% 1.29% 1978 6.51% 6.07% -0.78% 1979 18.52% 9.08% 0.67% 1980 31.74% 12.04% -2.99% 1981 -4.70% 15.49% 8.20% 1982 20.42% 10.85% 32.81% 1983 22.34% 7.94% 3.20% 1984 6.15% 9.00% 13.73% 1985 31.24% 8.06% 25.71% 1986 18.49% 7.10% 24.28% 1987 5.81% 5.53% -4.96% 1988 16.54% 5.77% 8.22% 1989 31.48% 8.07% 17.69% 1990 -3.06% 7.63% 6.24% 1991 30.23% 6.74% 15.00% 1992 7.49% 4.07% 9.36% 1993 9.97% 3.22% 14.21% 1994 1.33% 3.06% -8.04% 1995 37.20% 5.60% 23.48% 1996 23.82% 5.14% 1.43% 1997 31.86% 4.91% 9.94% 1998 28.34% 5.16% 14.92% 1999 20.89% 4.39% -8.25% 2000 -9.03% 5.37% 16.66% 2001 -11.85% 5.73% 5.57% 2002 -21.98% 1.80% 15.12% 2003 28.41% 1.80% 0.38% 2004 10.70% 2.18% 4.49% 2005 4.85% 4.31% 2.87% 2006 15.63% 4.88% 1.96% 2007 5.48% 4.88% 10.21% Stocks are down 40% or so already this year. That’s a scary article. They always put the scary articles out during scary times. Some thoughts/sayings that run wild through my head and parallel his observations:

On deleveraging: “A bear market is when stocks return to their rightful owners”

On taxation/redistribution of wealth: “Tax rates are irrelevant. We pay taxes when the government spends, not on April 15th when we file a tax return.”

On your title regarding a Hard Rain Gonna Fall, “Share prices are now saying one of two things about the future, either shares prices are cheap OR guns are cheap”

Here’s how stocks, bonds and cash fared since the last depression:

Annual Returns on Investments in
Year Stocks T.Bills T.Bonds
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84%
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20%
1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54%
1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56%
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79%
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86%
1934 -1.19% 0.30% 7.96%
1935 46.74% 0.23% 4.47%
1936 31.94% 0.15% 5.02%
1937 -35.34% 0.12% 1.38%
1938 29.28% 0.11% 4.21%
1939 -1.10% 0.03% 4.41%
1940 -10.67% 0.04% 5.40%
1941 -12.77% 0.02% -2.02%
1942 19.17% 0.33% 2.29%
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49%
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58%
1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80%
1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13%
1947 5.20% 0.38% 0.92%
1948 5.70% 0.95% 1.95%
1949 18.30% 1.16% 4.66%
1950 30.81% 1.10% 0.43%
1951 23.68% 1.34% -0.30%
1952 18.15% 1.73% 2.27%
1953 -1.21% 2.09% 4.14%
1954 52.56% 1.60% 3.29%
1955 32.60% 1.15% -1.34%
1956 7.44% 2.54% -2.26%
1957 -10.46% 3.21% 6.80%
1958 43.72% 3.04% -2.10%
1959 12.06% 2.77% -2.65%
1960 0.34% 4.49% 11.64%
1961 26.64% 2.25% 2.06%
1962 -8.81% 2.60% 5.69%
1963 22.61% 2.87% 1.68%
1964 16.42% 3.52% 3.73%
1965 12.40% 3.84% 0.72%
1966 -9.97% 4.38% 2.91%
1967 23.80% 4.96% -1.58%
1968 10.81% 4.97% 3.27%
1969 -8.24% 5.96% -5.01%
1970 3.56% 7.82% 16.75%
1971 14.22% 4.87% 9.79%
1972 18.76% 4.01% 2.82%
1973 -14.31% 5.07% 3.66%
1974 -25.90% 7.45% 1.99%
1975 37.00% 7.15% 3.61%
1976 23.83% 5.44% 15.98%
1977 -6.98% 4.35% 1.29%
1978 6.51% 6.07% -0.78%
1979 18.52% 9.08% 0.67%
1980 31.74% 12.04% -2.99%
1981 -4.70% 15.49% 8.20%
1982 20.42% 10.85% 32.81%
1983 22.34% 7.94% 3.20%
1984 6.15% 9.00% 13.73%
1985 31.24% 8.06% 25.71%
1986 18.49% 7.10% 24.28%
1987 5.81% 5.53% -4.96%
1988 16.54% 5.77% 8.22%
1989 31.48% 8.07% 17.69%
1990 -3.06% 7.63% 6.24%
1991 30.23% 6.74% 15.00%
1992 7.49% 4.07% 9.36%
1993 9.97% 3.22% 14.21%
1994 1.33% 3.06% -8.04%
1995 37.20% 5.60% 23.48%
1996 23.82% 5.14% 1.43%
1997 31.86% 4.91% 9.94%
1998 28.34% 5.16% 14.92%
1999 20.89% 4.39% -8.25%
2000 -9.03% 5.37% 16.66%
2001 -11.85% 5.73% 5.57%
2002 -21.98% 1.80% 15.12%
2003 28.41% 1.80% 0.38%
2004 10.70% 2.18% 4.49%
2005 4.85% 4.31% 2.87%
2006 15.63% 4.88% 1.96%
2007 5.48% 4.88% 10.21%

Stocks are down 40% or so already this year.

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