Motus Mentis

18 Comments

1. the one eyed man says

   Global markets around the world were up sharply today, principally because Mario Monti opened the door to an ECB rate cut.

   I don’t think that the recall election last night has anything to do with today’s markets.

   Posted June 6, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink
2. Malcolm says

   I don’t think that the recall election last night has anything to do with today’s markets.

   Well, I’ll bet David Axelrod would agree… Yep, I’m sure today’s rally had many causes.

   Funny, though, how it took off before there was any other real news.

   I’m expecting about a 600-point rally on November 7th.

   Posted June 6, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink
3. JK says

   Crap. Sure wish Peter hadn’t been the first commentator on this thread (yeah, yeah I know, normally “commentor” but it’s got to do with NW) anyways…

   Malcolm? Recall that Silence Dogood comment the feller from the earliest [WS] post thingie along with this’n:

   ‘Republican Senator John McCain called the figure “truly troubling,” considering the original price was $69 million per airplane.’

   A’course I realize we mostly agree on this one specific example. Then again, it’s whose ox is getting gored. Admittedly the southern states hew to balanced budgets with the exception being Florida. (FL only because there’s alot of northerners retiring south and it’s the state where the further south one goes, the norther one gets.) Difference being, the further north a resident is, the more Southern s/he is.

   It’d take me too long to ‘splain stuff for most of Waka’s audience but I’m pert sure you know. Arkansas’ had what ya’ll call Blue Dogs which in shortened form means we [until recently] elected Democrats though we wanted them to legislate as Republicans.

   (Clintons perhaps being the exception – but then again, now we’ve given them to New York. Please keep ’em.)

   My gen’ral point is pretty much the F-35 coupled with Dogood’s Dictum.

   Gen’ral speaking, all it’d take to take on the Taliban’s Air Force would be a Viet Nam era AD SkyRaider – drones’re nice though. ADs could loiter. Not so an F-35.

   Don’t know but I’m guessing the F-35 is gonna cost us 3 TRILLION before that’s over. DDG 1000? Pert near a trillion or so.

   Thing is ’bout Silence Dogood’s Dictum is this: “Depends on which of the people voting to spend themselves money and for what dubious purposes obtain the privilege of ruining the Republic.”

   TBH? Just a hint of my personal general feelings. I care about US citizens. Other persons?

   Not so much.

   http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/05/lockheed-martin-takes-broadside-in.html

   http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2011/05/family-poster-of-f-35-flight-t.html

   http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2011/08/scrutinising-lockheeds-claim-t.html

   http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/26/the_jet_that_ate_the_pentagon

   On this anniversary of the Normandy invasion I’m having to talk Syria – which I don’t much care for – though not likely the reasons ya’ll think. “Gaming it out” is easy but complicated… I wonder TBH, you ready to start packing – MREs are not tins of sardines and iodine tablets. And chocolate. This won’t be a Berlin Airlift.

   ‘Course if you’re ready, Parris Island should be a snap.

   Posted June 6, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink
4. the one eyed man says

   What Kudlow doesn’t tell you is that Asian and European markets were up 2% before New York opened, and US stock markets are highly correlated with other developed countries.

   He is correct when he says that stock prices are a gauge of future ecenomic growth. By the same logic, the fact that the stock market nearly doubled during Obama’s tenure is a testament to the excellence of his economic stewardship.

   Posted June 6, 2012 at 8:43 pm | Permalink
5. Malcolm says

   Correlation is not the same thing as causation.

   Posted June 6, 2012 at 8:47 pm | Permalink
6. the one eyed man says

   In the stock market it is. The correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and the Stoxx index of European stocks is 0.85. When European markets rise or fall, US markets nearly always do the same thing.

   Today was the best day for stocks globally this year. Somehow Bloomberg’s market recap missed the Scott Walker Effect.

   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-06/asian-stocks-rise-on-u-s-data-spain-aussie-oil-gain.html

   Posted June 6, 2012 at 8:53 pm | Permalink
7. the one eyed man says

   Moreover, the Democrats regained control of the state Senate, so Walker is in a weaker position than before the vote. Kudlow’s argument makes no sense.

   Posted June 6, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink
8. Malcolm says

   In the stock market it is. The correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and the Stoxx index of European stocks is 0.85. When European markets rise or fall, US markets nearly always do the same thing.

   All you’ve done here is to point out a correlation, which is still not the same thing as causation. Saying that European markets going up causes US markets to do the same is like saying that umbrellas going up all over town causes baseball games to be postponed.

   It wasn’t just Kudlow, anyway. Lots of others were saying the same thing. Even the financial reporter on WINS mentioned it.

   The fact that the Dems gained control of the Wisconsin State Senate (by one seat) is meaningless, because the Wisconsin State Senate won’t be in session again until after the general election in November, when many more seats are up for grabs.

   Here’s what I think: there were several reasons that the market spiked today. One of them, though, I think, was that if the Walker victory could happen in a strongly Progressive state like Wisconsin, it shows that there is a gathering groundswell of sentiment in this country in favor of fiscal sanity. Investors like that.

   Posted June 6, 2012 at 9:05 pm | Permalink
9. the one eyed man says

   The things which make European stocks rise – like Mario Draghi’s press conference this morning – also make US stocks rise, because the possibility of a European financial cataclysm is the biggest worry on American investors’ minds. So they are correlated because they share the same root cause.

   As for superimposing Walker’s victory on a global market melt-up: wishful thinking.

   Posted June 6, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
10. Malcolm says

    For those of you who are finding that a little Wisconsinfreude has a tonic effect in these worrisome times, have a look here.

    Posted June 6, 2012 at 9:14 pm | Permalink
11. Malcolm says

    So they are correlated because they share the same root cause.

    And there you have the difference between correlation and causation.

    Sometimes causes that affect foreign markets don’t make it to American markets, and vice versa. Like many observers today, I think the Wisconsin triumph gave the US markets a pop. 286 points isn’t your usual the-Nikkei-did-well-so-what-the-hell kind of day.

    Posted June 6, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink
12. Malcolm says

    JK, as long as we’re shelling out anyway, I want F-22s.

    Posted June 6, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink
13. TheBigHenry says

    “…, have a look here.”

    Whoever that guy is, he speaks in such a monotone. His vid would have benefited from a little background music. I’m thinkin’ … Beethoven’s Piano Sonata #8 or Tchaikovsky’s Symphony #6.

    It sucks to be him.

    Posted June 6, 2012 at 11:49 pm | Permalink
14. TheBigHenry says

    “TBH? Just a hint of my personal general feelings.”

    Run that by me again?

    Sorry, JK, but the Pinot noir is kickin’ in …

    At least Californicatia is good for something.

    Posted June 6, 2012 at 11:58 pm | Permalink
15. TheBigHenry says

    “JK, as long as we’re shelling out anyway, I want F-22s.”

    You got that right, bro.

    Posted June 7, 2012 at 12:08 am | Permalink
16. TheBigHenry says

    BTW, is this the signal for “ineligible receiver” or “illegal use of glands”?

    Posted June 7, 2012 at 12:19 am | Permalink
17. Malcolm says

    Looks more like “Gotta go – stand clear!”

    Posted June 7, 2012 at 9:51 am | Permalink
18. TheBigHenry says

    Hitler finds out that Scott Walker won the Wisconsin recall election: “…, there’s only one place left to go … Sacramento.”

    Posted June 7, 2012 at 11:00 am | Permalink