By now you have heard that there has been a coup attempt in Turkey. The situation is still chaotic, but it appears that in Istanbul at least, the coup is failing, with soldiers surrendering their weapons to police. President Erdogan was reported earlier to have left the country, but now we hear he is in Istanbul.
What to expect next, if the coup fails (which I think it will*): Erdogan will declare emergency powers. It would be almost without historical precedent for him not to do so. Moreover, he would be a fool not to do so, and he is not a fool. (“Never let a crisis go to waste.”)
I would not be surprised to learn that this was a false-flag operation, though of course that’s pure speculation. Erdogan, who is no secularist, once said that “democracy is like a train; you get off once you have reached your destination.” Perhaps he decided to take the express.
We live in interesting times.
*Note: why did I think, almost from the beginning, that the coup would fail? Because as far as I could tell, the rebels did not control the media quickly and completely. That suggested that they were not well-organized enough to succeed — or that the coup was never intended to succeed.