Motus Mentis

Here’s a salient item from John McCreary at NightWatch:

Israel: On 19 June the Defense Forces will begin a nationwide civil defense exercise, called Turning Point 5, that will include the largest simulation of missile interceptions ever held by the air force, The Jerusalem Post reported.

The exercise will involve all the air force’s missile defense systems — David’s Sling, Iron Dome and Arrow. Hundreds of “missiles” will be fired, in simulation, into Israel from Iran, Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.

The week-long drill will test the responses of the Home Front Command, the Israel Police, the Defense Ministry’s National Emergency Administration and other emergency services to a large scale missile attack. Eighty municipalities and local authorities will participate.

Comment: This will be a high cost war preparation precisely because it involves large distortions to normality by civil sectors of the economy. These are not opportunity costs.

In considering civil defense drills in Israel, there are only two scenarios: Israel attacks and prepares the home front for retaliation or Israel expects to be attacked. The confusion and disarray in Arab states tends to rule out the existence of any threat from Arab or Muslim states that would justify a civil defense exercise of this size and cost.

A national civil defense exercise in preparation for an Israeli attack is never held close to the time of an attack. This exercise does not mean that Israel has decided to attack anyone, such as Iran, but it means that it might and Israel has begun taking the appropriate long term, prudent preparations and precautions. High civilian costs of military-related activities are always a hallmark of real war preparations.

See also this.