Motus Mentis

John McCreary at NightWatch, always an indispensable resource for those who like to keep an ear to the ground, has offered some particularly pointed commentary on the Mideast over the past few days.

First, Afghanistan. Our open-ended nation-building project having foundered on some sharp and immovable realities, we are leaving. But rather than make clear to all the dismal facts about how matters stand in Afghanistan — public awareness of which might help us to make wiser choices in future — we seem to be engaging in a serious campaign of what Mr. McCreary refers to as “perception management”. (Other apt terms might be “disinformation” or “propaganda”.)

From yesterday’s dispatch (emphasis added):

Afghanistan: Suicide attacks occurred on 28 July in Tarin Kot, the capital of Oruzgan Province in southern Afghanistan north of Kandahar, and appear aimed at killing the governor and his staff. Clashes continued between assailants and security forces.

Comment: After the assassination of three top Afghan officials this month, the attack in Tarin Kot appears part of the Taliban tactic to eliminate the senior agents of the central government wherever they may be found.

Special NightWatch Comment: Citing a US officer acting as spokesperson for the NATO Command, USA TODAY reported on 28 July, “For the first time in five years insurgent-initiated attacks in Afghanistan have not increased with the start of a new fighting season, suggesting that a surge of U.S. forces has blunted Taliban momentum, according to the coalition forces.”

“The Taliban is ‘feeling the effects’ of a surge strategy over the winter to drive militants out of former Taliban strongholds and hold the terrain, said Navy Lt. Cmdr. Colette Murphy, a spokeswoman for the coalition command in Kabul, though she cautioned that the Taliban is not defeated.”

“In May and June, insurgent attacks were down about 2% compared with the same period last year, says the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Since 2006, insurgent attacks grew by 20% or more each year, according to the data. The NATO command in Kabul released a summary of the statistics in response to a USA TODAY request.”

The NightWatch data for May 2011, which is compiled only from open source reporting, indicate May 2011 was the most violent month in Afghanistan since 2001.

NightWatch‘s open source data is a sample and, thus, a sub-set of all insurgency and counter-insurgent violence. Thus, the 2,300 violent incidents reported in unclassified sources in May 2011 represents probably a third of the total violence for the month. Compared to May 2010, the May 2011 total is nearly six times larger.

The real story in Afghanistan is that violent clashes, attacks and IED incidents have grown steadily between November 2011 andJuly 2011. Despite cheerful NATO press releases, open source data indicate security steadily declined in nearly every province of Afghanistan in the past year. The UN data on security corroborate the downward trend.

Without knowing the actual data on which NATO bases its claim of improved security, it is impossible to evaluate the statement by the US officer in Kabul. The NightWatch and UN data, however, indicate clearly that Pollyanna-ish assertions about improved security conditions in Afghanistan are simply unfounded and unjustified. The recent spate of high-profile assassinations reinforces that conclusion.

And from today’s report:

Afghanistan: During an unannounced visit to Kandahar in southern Afghanistan, Admiral Mullen, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a pep talk to the allied forces in which he mocked the significance of the recent assassinations of key Afghan officials in the south, including President Karzai’s half-brother, Wali Karzai. He said some believe this is all the Taliban can do, thereby quoting but not owning a highly controversial statement.

Special comment: The US military, for understandable reasons of morale, continues to put a positive spin on security developments, but Readers need to know that the facts continue to run in the other direction. The US military is engaging in a perception management operation apparently for English and American speakers. The message is the job is getting done and it’s time to leave.

It is time to leave because the US civilian political leadership has made that decision and is holding the military leadership to their agreement in 2008 that they could make significant gains in 18 months. The time has passed; the gains are local and impermanent, according to every tactical-level interview; and the Taliban know it. Resident reporters have described the situation in Kabul as a fragile structure waiting to collapse.

Assassination of stalwarts of the Karzai regime cannot be minimized. If Wali Karzai, Jan Mohammed and Hamidi can be assassinated, so can President Karzai.

This is a warning: the Taliban and other anti-government fighting groups are engaged in their own decapitation campaign ”¦ without drones, but up close and personal in Kabul and Kandahar. They appear to be capable of killing anyone they decide to target.

Also in today’s report are notable items about Turkey and Egypt:

Turkey: Turkey is experiencing stress because the Chief of the General Staff, the Commander of the Land forces, the Air Force Commander and the Navy Commander resigned on 29 July to protest the anti-military actions of Prime Minister Erdogan’s government.

General Isik Kosaner, the Chief of the General Staff, said he resigned from his post in protest of the jailing of military officers in a variety of court cases. Kosaner reportedly said it is impossible for him to continue in his post because he is unable to fulfill his responsibility to protect the rights of his personnel.

The senior officers who resigned with Kosaner are Land Forces Commander General Erdal Ceylanoglu; Air Force Commander General Hasan Aksay; and Navy Commander Admiral Esref Ugur Yigit.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul signed a decree appointing Gendarmerie Commander General Necdet Ozel as Chief of Land Forces. A reporter said Ozel would later be appointed the Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish armed forces in the place of General Kosaner.

Comment: The overarching issue is civilian control of the Turkish armed forces. Control of promotions and promotion policy is central to any military leadership structure. The resignations were as a reproach and a challenge to the Erdogan government for meddling in the military promotion system.

Kosaner’s position and that of the other service chiefs is that officers under arrest but no brought to trial should be promoted on schedule because they have committed no crime. There are some 400 officers in this condition as the result of the AKP government’s discover in 2007 of a coup plot in 2003 that never took place. This is the Ergenekon or Sledgehammer coup plot by the military to overthrow the pro-Islamist AKP government a year after its election.

Since coming to power in 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has worked to break the political power of the armed forces and to erode its ethos as the guardian of the secular traditions of Ataturk. It has used a rising standard of living, relative prosperity and application for membership in the European Union, increased influence in Europe and the Middle East and promotion of more devout Islamic practices in public to marginalize the armed forces.

Outside the cities, the mass of Turks have proven in two elections that they support pro-Islamist and fundamentalist policies. The AKP has won both elections easily.

It also has used the Ergenekon investigation to keep the military leadership on the defensive and in the barracks under threat of arrest and prosecution for supporting a coup, now eight years ago. Respect for the military has declined significantly as a result.

Today’s resignations are without precedent and appear aimed at arousing sentiment against the strongly Islamist tendencies of the government. Grand gestures such as resignations almost always are sophomoric and fail to make a difference because no one is inexpendable and replacements, such as General Ozel, are always waiting for their chance to lead.

The exceptions are when mass military leadership resignations are precursors to popular uprisings or to a military takeover of the government. There are no signs and no chances of a popular uprising in support of the armed forces. The time for a coup would seem to have passed, but analysts said that about Pakistan in 1999 right before General Musharraf overthrew the Nawaz Sharif government.

Egypt: Tens of thousands of protestors gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square on 29 July after Islamist leaders called for nationwide demonstrations, BBC Middle East reported. The demonstrators called for Sharia law and an Islamic state.

BBC reported that most of the protesters were Muslim Brotherhood supporters. Egyptian Nile News TV channel reported that Salafists (i.e., essentially, Islamic fundamentalists) control Tahrir Square, and that there was no representation of other political factions.

Earlier, twenty eight other political groups, including the Youth Coalition and 6 April Movement, announced that they would continue their sit-in in Tahrir Square that began 8 July but would not join protests today because the Islamists violated an agreement made the week of 24 July to call for common demands, form a united front and avoid controversy, such as creating an Islamic state.

According to the secularist leaders, the Salafists broke the agreement by chanting pro-Islam slogans during the mass protest after Friday prayers in Qena. Salafists and other Islamists in Alexandria also started chanting after Friday prayers, Al-Masry Al-Youm reported.

As the day ended, Islamist protestors were said to be leaving Tahrir Square in Cairo. According to several Salafist clerics, the Islamists did not intend to turn the protests into an open-ended sit-in or to spend the night in the square.

Comment: The Islamists turned the weekly demonstration into a show of their political strength. Until today, the Islamists (Salafists) always preferred to remain in the background of the uprising. Today’s events prove the secular activists have been pawns who are unable to challenge the much more organized Islamists.

The message for readers is that the Islamists have the capability to become the next government of Egypt by dint of organization and democracy, unless the Egyptian military stops them.

US leaders should expect to have to choose between democratic elections that bring anti-US, anti-modern and anti-Israel Islamic fundamentalists to power in Cairo or undemocratic actions by the Egyptian armed forces to prevent that result.

You can subscribe to the NightWatch newsletter here.