In Leviathan, Thomas Hobbes wrote the following about why humans fight:
”˜So that in the nature of man, we find three principal causes of quarrel. First, competition; secondly, diffidence; thirdly, glory. The first maketh men invade for gain; the second for safety; and the third for reputation. The first use violence, to make themselves masters of other men’s persons, wives, children and cattle; the second, to defend them; the third, for trifles, as a word, a smile, a different opinion, and any other sign of undervalue, either direct in their persons or by reflection in their kindred, their friends, their nation, their profession, or their name.’
Rather than being some sort of masculine pathology, as I’m sure your children are now being told in school, these things all have a perfectly rational basis.
In the first case, which Hobbes calls “competition”, some rival stands between you (or your tribe, or your nation) and a necessary resource. Natural selection — i.e., differential survival and reproduction — will obviously favor organisms who will act to remove the obstacle, at least to the extent that doing so does not itself lower their own prospect of survival. (Obviously, a species of deer that tends to attack the tigers at the watering-hole will soon go extinct.)
The second case, which Hobbes calls “diffidence”, describes the rational behavior of the obstacle. If you are aware that some neighboring tribe has its hungry eyes on your hunting ground, you have two choices: you can upgrade your defenses, which locks you into a costly, and risky, arms-race in perpetuam, or you can make a pre-emptive attack and remove the threat once and for all.
The third case, “glory”, is the rational approach for defending one’s tangible assets when appeals to law are not an option: it is to make clear that any trespass will be met with swift retribution, and by so doing build a reputation for oneself as someone not to be messed with.
Of interest tonight is the second case. It is a major primer for international conflict, and has been understood as such since the Peloponnesian War. (Indeed, it was Hobbes’ reading of Thucydides that helped him understand the idea in the first place.)
So, with all this in mind (and a hat tip to J.D.), here’s an excellent article on the sudden rise of China as a major power, and what that might mean for global security.
35 Comments
An interesting series of analogies. China’s growth is inevitable and with it , power. America needs to return to healthy growth and to our previous level of military power. With that as a back drop, mutual cooperation to the benefit of each country is possible and preferable. America is wealthy as it gets older. China is getting older fast but without having gotten wealthy first. Too much belligerence too often is bad for business on both sides. We must remain as we should be-free, democratic and agile. China will eventually confront the restrictions of the Communist State vs the advancing freedoms and wants of a huge new wave of consumers. These two forces will not mix over time.
If China becomes too war like and aggressive towards its neighbors, we have counter moves available to us that China has much less of in response: a nervous India, suspicious Pakistan and South Korea, but most importantly Japan. While two of the four are nuclear now, adding the other two will be a powerful signal. Smart navigation by the US and China is quite possible and good for world commerce.
One thing missing from the linked article: any discussion of Mutual Assured Destruction, or “MAD”.
MAD creates a dangerous equilibrium that depends on neither party achieving fully lethal first-strike capability.
Malcolm, MAD works tactically as you state, but also there is a deeply human-moral part that makes it work. We in the West love our children. The Soviets, in spite of everything, loved theirs as well. So do the Chinese. That is the wild card about the “Islamic Bomb”.
You are exactly right, Robert.
Yes, of course that’s true, Robert, and the point about nukes in the hands of a culture that “loves death” is an important one.
But even a group that loves its children cannot be fully immune to the ice-cold logic of deterrence. If it becomes known that either side has developed a first-strike advantage that makes retaliation, and therefore MAD, impossible,things immediately get very dangerous all round. If you love your children, do you just trust the enemy who can now eliminate you with impunity? Or must you strike before they have a chance to do so? Likewise, if you are the one with the first-strike advantage, how can you dare delay using it, knowing that the the other side now has a powerful incentive to hit you before it’s too late?
Throughout history, and before our eyes today, tribes and nations and empires have struck one another mercilessly, children or no children. Everyone loves children, and nobody wants war. But whom can you trust? Your children’s lives are on the table whether you act or stay your hand.
Malcolm, truly an endless conundrum. The only slight variance today would be in the after math of such a preemptive attack, the “winning” nation would have at best a Pyrrhic victory as the world would be awash in fall out, both nuclear and economic depression. I guess it will always be so.
Robert,
A “first-strike” capability” implies preclusion of Mutual Assured Destruction.
Henry, I understand that. Saying it-first strike capability- is not proving it. The claim has to be believed. Thus we went with the USSR…we have this offensive weapon, they have that offensive weapon. Which would be first and truest? The final military answer was not offensive but defensive–SDI. It put a lid on the Soviets effectively, while offering a ‘shield’ over us.
I hope “nothing real” flares up anywhere soon.
http://www.arkansasmatters.com/news/local-news/confederate-flag-tattoo-disqualifies-marine-enlistee
JK, I don’t know about you, but I have no ink anywhere on my flawless though sagging exterior.
That actually Whitewall, rather surprises me. You having directly responded, very nearly the very first time Arkie offered commentary (what Israel was very nearly certain to do) I figured you had me pegged as a “no ink.”
Used to be all ‘identifying markers under one’s control’ were a “no no.”
And, for what its worth, I hold to that to this day.
JK, we flawless have to stick together…
JK and Robert,
I know where this is headed but I assure you — nobody wants to see the naked truth, with the possible exception of EE and her sewing circle.
Any time the Left is yammering on about “justice” or “right” and acting like it’s some sort of universal thing, I always think of Thucydides’s famous quote on the subject:
“Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
@ Mr. Antiquity
From Wikipedia on “Might makes right“:
JK, Whitewall, I am also flawless! Still, I’m a woman of a certain age so it’s to be expected. I have four off-spring who remain flawless as well but “ink” is becoming the norm and after a good night out on the town..well, anything could happen.
Malcolm, you raised the Chinese issue, which is probably not quite such an issue in your part of the world.
Here, it is an issue. It’s visible, everyday, everywhere. I have lived in this country on and off for thirty years. My closest friend is a Malaysian/Chinese woman married to a French man.
The Chinese people tend to be orderly, cooperative and friendly. They are undoubtedly, hard-working and clever. The average Chinese kid can run rings round the natives, speaking academically. But, and it’s a big but, they have no fun. The kids are so regimented, drilled to the nth degree, that they have no imagination.
The first wave of Chinese integrated well, tried hard to join in with everything, but the latest arrivals are different. They are here in vast numbers so they don’t need to reach out anymore. They stick together, and their children come out of school speaking in their native tongue. Certain areas have become like China because these good people were able to offer large amounts of money to entice homeowners to sell. Last week, a real estate agent came up to our door and asked if we would be prepared to sell for twice the money we paid for this house a few short years ago. We were tempted.
One of my sons was involved for years with a Chinese, very westernized, girl. She has recently gone to work in London and a few weeks later we have a replacement, another Chinese girl, beautiful, clever and “mathsy”. The ex’s best friend, maybe ex-best friend.”.
She looks lovely, and he looks happier than he’s been in a long time. I’m okay with that, but I do wonder if, down the line the half-Chinese will be way down the pecking order, because these guys are here, and they will be in charge.
God help my youngest who is set to marry a Polish girl!
Musey, of course you are flawless! I never doubted it. Multiculturalism has its down side. The downside is aided by the host culture no longer believing in itself.
Henry, EEs sewing circle must be an elegant display of womanhood.
Robert,
I imagine it very well must be, though some of the visions I have in my imagination are not appropriate for a “family friendly” salon such as Waka.
Thank you Whitewall! Your loveliness knows no bounds.
Multiculturalism does has its downside but it’s not all bad news. In case I wasn’t clear, I do have huge respect for the Chinese and all that they have achieved, for the amazing standards they set that their western counterparts couldn’t hope to match. If it was just math/physics I could understand it but their grasp of language, spelling, and grammar also eclipses that of the natives. Anyway, my son only ever meets Chinese or Indian women!
I don’t know if I’m unusual but the prospect of having a Chinese daughter-in-law doesn’t worry me at all, and my Polish DIL (actually she is true-blue Aussie but of Polish heritage) to be, is extremely beautiful and lovely. (I sent Malcolm a photo so he can confirm or deny!). But that doesn’t preclude me from worrying that we are in the midst of a takeover. We live a long way from the city and although it is commutable, and many do commute, it’s not been attractive to the Chinese until very recently because they traditionally prefer to live in the metro area. Now we are getting knocks on the door, and being offered more than our houses are worth by people who have money and couldn’t care less about paying over the odds. The change has been swift. Every time I travel by train I see the irrefutable evidence. If I wish to eavesdrop, I will have to learn Mandarin, or Cantonese or whatever, and sadly languages were never my strong point.
What Musey, you only now recognizing JK as the epitome of the Chiwits? Me, full-blooded Hillbilly?
Am I to take that in the drastic sense?
JK, you are an enigma, smart as any of the “Chiwits” and certainly a hundred times more creative. Most Chiwits would struggle to understand you but for me, no problemo, you’re an open book. Please don’t take anything in the “drastic sense”.
Haven’t you guys had a bit of snow? I know this is a blog that deals with serious issues but a ‘weather event’ like that could have rated a mention. I even watched you, on the news, digging yourself out. JK I hope you had “enuf” beer to see you through the blizzard.
One last thing whilst I’m being frivolous. Whitewall you made me laugh when you wrote recently of the yoga seniors and asked us to imagine them. A very clear image came to mind! My dear husband is starting to feel a little stiff these days and sometimes considers going to yoga classes. His vision is of a class of youngish, clean-living, slightly new-age folk, mostly women! He would like to have a good look around before putting his mat down next to the prettiest one. Good luck with that.
“I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords.”
Wouldn’t it be nicer, Musey, to have Australia remain a homeland for Australians, organized in the way Australians like, and celebrating Australian customs, folkways, and holidays? To have the top spots in Australian schools going to Australians?
One can entertain all of these thoughts without having to feel anything even remotely resembling “hate”. The Chinese already have a nation and a homeland of their own (and let me assure you, they intend to keep it that way). Why can’t you? Why must you just smile weakly as your people and your culture go down to gradual social and genetic extinction?
I’ll tell you why: because here in the West we’ve all been conditioned to think that to raise any objection is “racism”, or “xenophobia”, or “hate”. But this is just training, and carefully orchestrated manipulation of opinion. Is the survival of your culture really less important than expressing the right opinions?
It’s your choice, Musey.
That’s a bit contentious, Malcolm. I do think that Australia is a bit of a special case because it’s a very new country built by immigrants, and many would say “stolen” from its rightful owners.
Australia does have it’s customs and holidays which can be celebrated by all. The Chinese women that I have encountered through my boys are fully participating in society. They have been here since a young age, schooled and been through university here at a time when they were a minority so they had to mix. What’s different about the latest arrivals is their reluctance to engage with the wider community. I have a problem with that.
Also, I have to say that I have grave reservations about Chinese companies coming in and buying up vast swathes of land to provide food for their own population. The latest free trade agreement allows for them to import their own workers to build and develop some very prestigious sites. I can’t really see how that is of any benefit to the Australian worker who is shut out because they have their own cheap labour.
It’s short sighted to sell off the country to the highest bidder but individuals who are offered financial inducements to move do cave in quite easily. So do governments looking to claim the glory for a healthy bottom line. Right now we have a”budget emergency” as a result of carrying on living the high life when the commodities boom has fizzled out. The Chinese have kept this country afloat when much of the world was struggling, and we will probably go down with them our fates are so intertwined.
The schools question that you raise is difficult. As long as part of the system is academically selective you are inevitably going to have a situation where the Asian students take most of the places. That is the reality.
You say I have a choice. What choice is that? My son who has always chosen to date Chinese women is someone who is described by his Chinese friends as “white on the outside yellow in the middle”. He has always had a deep affinity for the Asian culture, he always from being a small boy chose to play chess with the Chinese kids rather than Aussie Rules with the white boys. If he ends up marrying an Asian woman I would have no qualms. I don’t think that his genes would be extinguished by a union anymore than hers would be. In this instance, I think it’s mutually beneficial.
I should send you some photos of my boys (and girl) celebrating Australia Day earlier this week. They were at the beach/park cooking a barbie and having a few drinks with friends. The Chinese girlfriend was surrounded by carousing Aussies and I have to say that she looked overjoyed to be there. So whose culture is being subsumed in this instance?
Sometimes mixed relationships work well. If I was to intervene or try, in any way, to break up a partnership I know what would happen. My mother was an English woman who married an Irish man, I have only recently discovered that my husband is Jewish. Our children are already a mixture.
I am capable of racism, or more precisely, “Islamaphobia”. If my daughter were to bring home a Muslim man I would be far from happy. And I’m a little bit ashamed to admit that i would be frightened for her but that’s the truth.
Oh, and I do agree that it is not right that the Chinese can come here and buy up companies, houses, and land when it is in no way reciprocal. But I don’t have a choice about that either.
Well, Musey, you certainly seem a good deal more resigned than thrilled about it all. And your question: “What choice is that?” seems to imply pretty clearly that you don’t feel you have much of a choice at all, despite living in a society in which the people are ostensibly sovereign. I think much of Europe has felt the same way until very recently, when they seem suddenly to taken a keen interest in re-examining their options.
And so it always goes.
Yes, it’s hard to see much upside for Australia there. (Rather the opposite, in fact: I’ll go so far as to say that a dispassionate observer might look at this and think you were all being played for a bunch of chumps.)
It’s your country, Musey. It’s not my place to tell you what to do with it, so I won’t. Do remember, though, that demographic change is effectively irreversible, and that “tipping points” are only seen clearly in retrospect.
Malcolm, you told me that I have a choice, and I asked what choice that I can’t see? In the sense of what do you mean, and what do you think I could do, or achieve by exercising that choice? This is my adopted country so I’m in the same position as the Chinese who have settled here and taken citizenship.
You may be right about being played for a “bunch of chumps” but there is no doubt that we live in the China-zone and they are the major power in this region. We’re a small population on a large land mass. If the Chinese wanted to take over in an aggressive way they could, tomorrow. I think that, in the past, people used to think that The USA and the UK would ride to the rescue. Now, I think there is an acceptance that we’re on our own.
When the UK became part of the Euro zone it opened up to all the countries that comprise that union, at the same time closing down trade with Australia, NZ and other commonwealth countries. The writing was on the wall, writ large. Australia got the message. In a few weeks I will be in the UK. I do have a British passport but it has expired so I will stand with the “aliens” and wait to be admitted into the country.
Really, I don’t know what you would have us do. On the big stage China is a super power, getting more powerful all the time despite its current problems. We can’t go to war with them because we would lose. So we have to give.
If that sounds resigned then I suppose it is. It’s an acceptance of the facts. When the British ditched Australia for the EU it was a whole new ball game.
Australia, I would say, doesn’t have the problems that face Europe. Immigration has been controlled, if not for the Chinese, then for most others, most particularly poor Muslims. We are not a bleeding-heart kind of place. Some people don’t like that.
Finally, I do feel that Australia has been pretty successful in uniting all the disparate groups. There is a song that my kids used to sing every day at assembly. I think it was called “we are Australian” or maybe “We are one but we are many” (which is the opening line.) It is often suggested as a new national anthem and it certainly has to be better than “Advance Australia Fair”. It’s certainly inclusive!
That’s a nice turn of phrase, Malcolm, but it is not universally true. It depends on an individual’s clarity of vision, as well as the willingness (or lack thereof) to see things as they really are and not necessarily how one wants them to be. Self-delusion is the new Valium.
The PC police have beaten independent thinking out of the sheeple to the point where taking a stand on any subject has become a death-defying act in the eyes of many. The only way to forestall the inevitable derision and/or shaming (or worse) is to prevaricate.
Musey, it sounds as if China won’t need to trouble its military at all. From your glum assessment, it looks like the conquest and surrender have already taken place.
You have my sympathies!
Malcolm! That’s your glum assessment, not mine. Don’t fight a war that you can’t win is a good lesson for lots of countries that go in, without an exit plan, thus leaving a mess behind when it’s a lot tougher to overcome your enemy than you imagined, because they’re not going to just roll over. If the Chinese were to attack this country they would have a fight on their hands. No doubt about that.
I looked up the “anthem” that my children used to sing each day. Entitled, “I am, You are, We are Australian”, and it still moves me. It may be idealistic, and it may ask us to be more accepting than we wish to be, but it strikes a chord.
Malcolm, you should come over and check us out because you might be very surprised at how integrated Australians have become and how willing a lot of people are to become a part of this country. I’ve lost count of the number of people who say they “used to be English”.
But of course there’s nothing wrong with that; like the United States, Australia was born as a British colony, and nearly everything about it — its culture, language, religion, folkways, legal system, and so much more — is an expression of its British heritage. The transition from “English” to “Australian” is therefore a perfectly natural and painless one. (My own parents made the same transition when they emigrated to the United States from the U.K. back in 1956.)
What you are describing now, though, sounds as though Australia, having been abandoned by the mother country, is now being re-colonized by a profoundly alien nation. (as you say above, now that their numbers and influence are increasing toward the “tipping point”, Chinese immigrants are much less likely to feel any need to assimilate to Australia’s British culture.)
I’ve spent time in China; my daughter lived there for three years. I would not want to live in China, or in a Chinese colony.
I wonder how much it will move you when sung in Mandarin.
Alternatively, we could be overrun with disgruntled Brits trying to escape the mother country. I know many who would leave the UK in an instant if they could get permission to come here so we could always redress the balance that way.
Recalling the days of the “cultural cringe” it is funny to notice how much has changed. The average Brit, back in time, wanted to know what we found so enticing about Oz, a wild and woolly place infested by deadly snakes and spiders. Not to mention flies. Oh, and the unbearable Aussie drawl..and a million other things. No cuisine, no culture, no history, or music, or literature. No wonderful inspiring architecture and no respect for tradition. How things have changed. Perceptions, anyway.
It’s not just the Chinese who are coming here. It’s the educated Brits who turn up straight out of university and come here intending to stay for a year or two. They rarely want to go back. Hence we have Australian hospitals stuffed with British-trained doctors, banks and businesses who have picked off the best and brightest, all bought and paid for by the British taxpayer who will see no return on their investment.
There is a quality of life to be had here that is much coveted. Until the Chinese decide who comes here, and we’re not there yet, we will always have the option of opening the door to Europeans wishing to escape.
One more thing to consider is the Australian character which is a little different to that of the English. There is a brashness, a confidence, an unapologetic pride in the country. I don’t think that there is the same reluctance not to offend and if outsiders don’t like that, well tough.
There is growing disquiet about the Chinese who come here and insulate themselves but unlike unlike in Britain where nothing would be said, there is open discussion. The current turmoil in Europe is not going unnoticed either. Australians have no intention of making the same mistakes.
Musey…Aussie Drawl huh? Well, I am a native of North Carolina…we have been informed by less sophisticated types that we have a “drawl”. By the sound of it, Oz is maybe a mid way between Britain and America? One of my favorite American style westerns was done back in the ‘8os- I think- but filmed and set in western Australia. “Quigley Down Under” starring Tom Selleck and the late Alan Rickman. Maybe you have seen it?
There are right many Aussies here in the US. Nice people.
Musey,
When I was much younger, before my kids were born, I did a lot of studio work with Australian bands. I thought they were all splendid people, and greatly enjoyed getting to know them. Some of my fellow engineers traveled to Sydney to make records. They all raved about the place. One of the record producers I worked with gave me such a pep talk about the opportunities for good recording engineers in Australia that the lovely Nina and I seriously considered moving there.
Australian culture differs from the mother culture in many of the same ways American culture does, and I think Americans have always had a natural affection for your nation and its people. I hope you will all do what it takes to preserve its distinctive character, and to maintain control of its future. Your last comment made me somewhat more hopeful.
Whitewall, I am from the north of England! Mind you, I have a very neutral accent courtesy of elocution lessons (at my private junior school) and mixing with the very middle class who always aspire to eradicate local accents, extra special effort if they’re northern.
I am told by my fellow northerners that I’m “right posh”. Do you come from London?”. That is since I was a child. Evidently, I am haughty!
My husband comes from Cheltenham. That really is a “posh” town and if you have been brought up there you are going to speak in a certain way. I’ve never met a Cheltonian who thinks that I’m posh or haughty. I think some of them think that I’m a “try-hard”. One of my husband’s friends actually told me that I was “just a pretty face with a put-on accent, trying to be like us”. I don’t think so.
We are what we are, a product of where we come from, and where we grow up, and the people that we grow up with. I went through a phase of failing to mention my Irishness because of the inevitable hostility. But, I got over that, because I had to, and denying my father made me feel more ashamed than owning up.
I’ve not seen the film, but Tom Selleck is American and Alan Rickman was English. If that film was made today it would feature a real Aussie.
Malcolm,I think we crossed over there.
I think the great strength of Australian culture and identity has always been that it doesn’t matter where you came from, just where you are. Be Australian.
It’s funny because I don’t feel Australian, but my children do. They spent their formative years here.
My sons took great delight in wearing Aussie jerseys wandering around Cambridge, Oxford, and London. Having spent their childhood here, they had no doubt about which side they were on. They’re home now, one of them is considering a year in London, just for a laugh.