All eyes are on Israel today after Hamas launched a vicious assault from Gaza with widespread atrocities against civilians. This is one of those days where the tectonic plates suddenly slip, releasing destructive energy and reshaping the landscape.
The scope and coordination of the operation make it clear that it has been carefully planned; it seems overwhelmingly likely that Iran, newly flush with cash, has played a central role. The timing, on the 50th anniversary, to the day, of the Yom Kippur war, was obviously carefully chosen as well: Western resources have been severely strained by the war in Ukraine, and Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent return to power guarantees a massively destructive IDF response, which will galvanize anti-Israel sentiment throughout the Arab and Muslim world. (It will be very likely, for example, to fracture the recent Saudi-Israel entente.)
The timing also could not be better for Russia’s interests in Ukraine. Although it may have seemed to inattentive observers here in the West that the war in Ukraine has been deadlocked for several months, the truth is that the West has at this point bled Ukraine almost to death, and for months now has been looking for a narrative that enables it to walk away, as popular support for the endless and futile cost has withered away in America and elsewhere. Events in Israel will now provide the perfect excuse for us to divert our attention and resources. We should expect a sharp intensification of Russian action on the Ukrainian front over the next days and weeks.
Israel will now have little choice but to pulverize Gaza and Hamas; the previous era is over. If this really is, as seems likely, a coordinated action by Russia and Iran to advance the interests of both powers, it will have required a great deal of planning and logistics. Did all that really happen without the vaunted Israeli intelligence apparatus catching wind of it? That’s hard to imagine. Did Israel know this was coming, and thought that it would provide justification for doing what it has long felt it would sooner or later have to do in Gaza? Did they underestimate how severe the assault would be?
What happens next? This is a major event, and the repercussions and aftershocks are going to reverberate for a long time to come; I think this is just the beginning.
Stay safe, make sure your affairs are in order, and keep your powder dry.
P.S. Keep in mind also that our strategic petroleum reserve was recently depleted by this administration in order to diminish grumbling about skyrocketing fuel prices. If Iran now blocks the Strait of Hormuz, that great big chicken will come home to roost.
4 Comments
I don’t think Russia has to coordinate anything. I think they just contentedly munch on their popcorn.
https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/israelis-keep-hurting-their-own-pr
They love their genocide.
Not trying to get into an argument here Crowhouse, but I think one can challenge Israel’s settlement policy and ask tough questions about the proportionality of the nation’s response to Hamas terrorism, while avoiding the g-word. Too often the meaning of that term is inflated, in my humble opinion, just as the f-word (fascist) or the m-word (Marxist) is probably also overused.
Crowhouse — interesting link. Rather harsh for modern/Western sensibilities; probably more baseline for historical norms in a world with population pressure and shortages of resources. Not sure being nice, and all getting along, carries the day in the long run. Things wind back to tribes protecting what they have, and poaching a neighbor in decline.