OK, folks, we are heading into a year that will likely make the last few seem like “the good old days”. I have put together a bluntly and unsentimental list of some of the direst possibilities. Which of these seem likely?
1) 9/11-level terror attack
2) New and far deadlier pandemic
3) Trump jailed
4) Trump assassinated
5) Widespread summer riots
6) China moves against Taiwan
7) War with China
8) War with Russia
9) War with Iran
10) Martial law/general suspension of rights
11) Colossal natural disaster
12) Grid failure
13) None of the above; you’re far too pessimistic, Malcolm!
15 Comments
All of the above.
I would say that 1, 3, 4, and 5 are the most likely, although after Biden’s comments this weekend on the use of military force against his political opponents (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2024/01/21/biden-threatens-to-use-military-jets-on-law-abiding-american-citizens-n2633933), I should perhaps add 10.
The most likely answer is number thirteen. Biden to be sure has plenty of problems like immigration, Iran, and the economy, but they’re arguably manageable “with a little luck” as Sir Paul would say.
Indeed, let me go on the record saying the president has a sixty/seventy percent chance or so of being re-elected in November. Trump supporters underestimate in my opinion the degree to which he is despised by approximately 52 percent of the population (almost all Democrats and a small but pivotal portion of Republicans). This bare majority will hold their noses and pull the lever for The Old Man, simply because they have no desire for going through the drama again of another Trump regime.
On a more positive note: Hope all is going well with your wife Malcolm, that she’s making a full recovery.
1,3,4,5,6 and 12 are absolutely on the table as distinct possibilities, even probable.
To Jason@6:13- I think you severely underestimate how much election fraud took place in multiple swing states, and how much more aware millions of people are to the potential for more fraud in 2024.
I also personally know a number of moderate Democrats who, while not endorsing or voting for Trump, will simply not vote Biden again. They will simply stay home.
You also Have Jamie Dimon and Blackstone CEO Stephan Schwarzman coming out at Davos and basically accepting the probability of another Trump presidency, and telling the coastal elites to grow up and deal with it.
That two major financial bigwigs are being that bold in public tells you they can read the handwriting on the wall, and don’t want to be trapped on the sinking ship that is Biden and all of his baggage, from border crisis and mass immigration to transmania and DEI initiatives. All of that insanity is failing for all to see, and the smart rats are jumping ship before the storm hits.
Oops, left this one out:
14) North Korea starts serious trouble
And yes, there’s one more:
15) Complete failure of confidence in election integrity, leading to widespread strife and fracture
1 yes or false flag
2 attempted, yes
if 3 or 4 then 5, if not, but elected, then 5
6, then 7 & 8
9 in any case
10 of course, expanding from current abuses
11 possible unifying distraction, or see #1
12 regional, serial grid failures likely
13 inconceivable!
14 you mean even more?
15 already occurred
Good points Another Dave, which are well-taken.
Also, allow me to add one more scenario to Malcolm’s list: Haley winning NH and having a subsequent month to make her case. She could be compelling, arguing that unlike her primary opponent who is all talk, she could actually take less dramatic but more realistic steps towards our immigration and identity-politics problems (admittedly we’ll be stuck with the neoconservative foreign policy).
All of the above, expect 2).
A new pandemic is likely, but it is unlikely to be deadlier – that would require engineering skills that are not available to the parties interested in manufacturing it.
14: Brandon goes to his, um, reward and the world is treated to the ghastly spectacle of a President Harris
Max: as for deadly pandemics, they’re working on it.
James: I don’t think Biden’s about to die, but he might step down so that they can slip in someone else (“Big Mike” is a possibility, I guess). There is no way they actually run Harris in November.
Jason: I very much doubt Haley will win NH, and I am even more doubtful that she could swipe the nomination from Trump. As for her being more electable in the general, nah — Dems will vote Dem, and most Republicans can’t stand her. She’s just another weathervane RINO neocon world-saver, in the mold of Mitt Romney. I also cannot for a minute imagine that none of the things on this list are going to happen!
Loquitur: if it really is “all of the above” — well, it’s been good to know you, folks.
How about dirty Demorats or radical USA hating leftists using AI to impersonate Trump and interfere with the US election.
Richard,
Yes, that’s a good one – the use of AI deepfakes is bound to increase, and to add to the general chaos.
1) 9/11-level terror attack
Possible, but not likely. The religious organizations crazy enough to try an attack of this magnitude couldn’t find the USA on the best day they ever had, let alone find the target once they got off the jet.
2) New and far deadlier pandemic
COVID was a hoax. Another hoax is just as likely.
3) Trump jailed
I would say that’s almost impossible.
4) Trump assassinated
Possible, but since the Democrats and Never-Trumpers are all anti-gun, the possibility falls to some tiny fraction of one percent. What’s more likely is that the would-be martyr stuffs an over-powered 5.56 into a rifle chambered for .223 and the gun blows up.
5) Widespread summer riots
A certainty.
6) China moves against Taiwan
The clock’s been ticking for years. If Trump wins the election and settles into the White House, China will behave itself. Otherwise, the fighting will be brief and very bloody.
7) War with China
No. Mainly because China will launch.
8) War with Russia
Over what?
9) War with Iran
It’s a coin toss, but if it happens the war will be over in a few months.
10) Martial law/general suspension of rights
If Biden wins, this is a certainty. Police will do a house to house search to confiscate contraband and arrest traitors to the Biden cause.
11) Colossal natural disaster
Not likely.
12) Grid failure
Nope.
13) None of the above; you’re far too pessimistic, Malcolm!
See my previous answers.
14) North Korea starts serious trouble
That’s impossible to predict, although the emperor of North Korea could slip on the soap and break his neck during his morning ablutions.
It happens all the time!
15) Complete failure of confidence in election integrity, leading to widespread strife and fracture
The first part is already happening, and has been happening since the last election. I think I’m living in a banana republic somewhere.
Jack, my thoughts about some of your responses:
1) I wasn’t expecting another airliner attack, but rather something new. A synchronized Bombay-style mass-shooting event, for example, wouldn’t be hard to manage, or a large-scale hostage-taking like Beslan.
2) COVID was quite an operation; a test, perhaps, that we all failed. But there was also an actual virus; I know people who died from it. I can imagine a similar, larger-scale operation with a deadlier virus, especially in this fraught election year.
4) That’s a funny remark, but unserious.
7) Hope you’re right.
8) Just because. And because the tail needs a dog to wag.
11) They never are.
12) I think grid failure is a distinct possibility, because it can happen four different ways: attack/sabotage, CME (see the Carrington Event of 1859), disastrous policy choices, or incompetence.