I’m sorry that it’s been rather quiet here for a bit; there’s certainly been plenty going on in the world, but I haven’t had anything interesting enough to say about any of it that I’ve been inclined to write anything down. (Please rest assured, though, that I am, as they say, “monitoring the situation”.)
Mostly I’ve just been reading, taking care of domestic obligations, and thinking about things.
The lovely Nina and I are off to Minnesota on some personal business until the end of next week. I’ll get back in harness after that (or sooner, if the Muse pays me a visit while we’re away).
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Travel safe.
Although it’s probably not possible to absolutely confirm, it looks like Trump pulled it off, obliterating the three major Iranian nuclear sites (see Claire Berlinski, a pretty reliable source, here: https://claireberlinski.substack.com/p/fordow-meets-the-b-2. ). As much as I can’t stand him and wish somebody like Ike was at the helm right now, I think DJ made the right call regarding this very Hobson’s Choice. Better chaos and instability than a nuclear Iran, even if for only a few years. Still, we’re in for a rough period, times that will test our souls.
On that cheerful note: Happy holidays, Malcolm!
Incidentally, the proliferation of nukes is a good argument for our getting to AGI and SuperIntelligence first – would this not enable the West to throw a wrench into any rogue state’s effort to use the Big Enchilada?
“Pals” of mine and I considered how we’d configure a strike package against a target such as Fordow. We were and are *somewhat familiar with the effects of the use of of the GBU-43/B munition previously employed (2017) in Afghanistan. As that target was largely a “tunnel complex” and the GBU-43 not being “especially penetrating” – a mostly ‘thermobaric effect’ should have (and as it ultimately turned out, did) been *mostly sufficient. Wiki gives a reasonably good description of what I mean using the term, thermobaric:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2017/04/13/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-mother-of-all-bombs/
Anyway : As my “pals” and I, “spitballed” [read speculated ] “details gleaned from open source material ] we speculated a minimum of three waves of B-2s (six 57s) would be necessary to inflict “reasonably effective damage.”
Whether Trump and Hegseth were monitoring our “spitballing” (speculation) sessions or not I’d not care to hazard a guess but – it appears *they didn’t depend so much on *our amateur expertise rather than their own:
“Overkill” in my humble opinion but then heck, what do *we know? But then again, what do the nattering nabobs of such as Jake Tapper (“Our job is to ask questions of government” – yeah right Jake : didn’t you just co-author and publish a book )?
https://www.twz.com/air/gbu-57-massive-ordnance-penetrator-successor-in-the-works
I would venture some further speculation concerning Jake Tapper’s & et als “Battle Damage Assessing” expertise but then again I well recall Jake Tapper’s credulity concerning his timely reporting on the Easter Bunny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtqiLobIJnU
One of the better sites for *accurate conflict reporting – in my humble estimation/opinion:
https://www.twz.com/air/gbu-57-massive-ordnance-penetrator-strikes-on-iran-everything-we-just-learned
Thought to add an additional open source (although I’d qualify my typing *open source “dismisses the fact Larry was” DIA :
https://www.virtualmirage.org/monday-dust-up/
I wish I could be more definitive but alas, I “differed some years ago with the PTB[W] in a “official assessment” and subsequently gave up [lost/was denied] access. Oh well, I’m grateful I was nowhere near Benghazi.
Proceed to the nine and a half minute point and then …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTjL42CQk1s
Homework helps (or so Mom said)
I thought I’d just mention here that the blogger The Zman apparently died mysteriously, for those of you who don’t know. While not myself caring for his rhetoric he could be perceptive, and obviously it’s always sad when someone is cut short prematurely.
Appreciate the notification Jason. Though it’s been awhile since I last looked in on his stuff.