From the abstract of an analysis of the Ukranian war recently published by ~finnem, an online acquaintance of mine:
In this research letter we intend to make the case that the present effort to obscure an essentially inevitable set of events represents the most significant contrarian thesis in several generations, and that, as the bitter end approaches, several Western democracies have bound together to prevent the general public from understanding the rank impotency of the West in the face of the consequences that will likely follow.
Despite these efforts at obfuscation, we project with moderate confidence that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will collapse and hand a military victory to the Russian Federation prior to 30 June 2023, and with high confidence that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will collapse and hand a military victory to the Russian Federation prior to 30 September 2023. The consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine and the collateral impacts to NATO, the European Union, The United States, and the Ukraine are explored in the text infra.
As a final introductory note, we would like to remind the reader that war is serious business. We take no pleasure in the need to make bloodless assessment of the gruesome machinery of armed conflict, particularly in present case, one that has likely already snuffed out more than two hundred thousand lives. Moreover, difficult as it may be, objectivity requires us to shed any patriotic or sentimental inclinations we might otherwise wish to express. These have a tendency, particularly in the current conflict, which is rife with propaganda and appeals to baser emotions, to augment confirmation bias and the analytical poison of wishful thinking.
Elsewhere:
Contrary to Ukrainian expectations, we assess that Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO, and that Russian troops will not be expelled from Ukraine’s territory. We rather think that Ukraine will at the very least be bifurcated into a neutral and essentially disarmed “West Ukraine,” which may even fall prey to expansionist Polish interests, and, to the east, a new state or states composed of territory annexed into Russia.
Even on its own terms, these developments would be a categoric loss for NATO, and we assess that the resulting blow to the credibility of the alliance to fulfil its primary purpose (to serve as a military counter to Russian interests) is likely to reduce the organisation to hollow irrelevancy.
In the wake of such a defeat, we assess that the influence of the United States in European military affairs will likely collapse as its reputation as the global hegemon is savaged, as European states consequently come to resent the plight that American dominance has left them in, and they are forced to manage their own national defences.
The report is seventy-five pages long, and meticulously detailed; it is not for the casual reader (and certainly not for the blithe NPC cheerleader who festoons his or her lawn, and online profile, with little Ukrainian flags, and then, with virtue amply signaled, starts thinking about what’s for supper). If, however, you have a genuine interest in understanding the actual strategic and tactical facts of this war, it is well worth your time to read it all. You can find it here. I recommend downloading a local copy, because you never know.