Mideast Roundup

In the latest NightWatch, John McCreary makes some important points about recent developments in Iran, and about the West’s policy of economic sanctions:

Iran: Comment: Several reputable analysts have suggested that the attacks against the British Embassy are symptoms of a fundamental political struggle in the Iranian leadership elite. The argument is not new, but suggests that the underlying disagreements are not resolved.

The strong fundamentalists, embodied by the Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Basij militia, are hostile to outsiders and react violently to sanctions on Iran. They advocate that Iran can survive and be strong without concessions to the UN or the West.

A more pragmatic and worldly-wise group of leaders advocates dialogue with the West and others to discuss differences. This group has influence but lacks power at this time.

UK-Iran: Foreign Secretary William Hague said Britain ordered Iran to vacate its embassy in London by Friday, stressing it did not mean diplomatic ties between the two countries had been entirely cut off. It does mean they have been downgraded.

Norway-Iran: Norway has temporarily closed its embassy in Tehran due to security concerns after the British mission was attacked by an angry mob, the government said on Wednesday.

France-Iran: The French Foreign Ministry said it is recalling the French ambassador to Iran for consultation after the attack on British Embassy in Tehran. According to a Ministry statement, the attack was a violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and that France must respond.

US-Iran: The United States unveiled sanctions against the energy and petrochemical sectors, as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke of a “significant ratcheting-up of pressure” on Iran.

She said Iran’s oil and gas industry and its financial sector would also be targeted by the sanctions.

Comment: Sanctions on oil and gas and on banks dominate public conversations about restraining Iranian nuclear programs. The logical or practical connection between oil and banking sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program, however, has not been well explained. To paraphrase Kissinger, means must match ends in order to achieve successful policy outcomes. Thus far that match has not been established, demonstrably.

Both oil and banking sanctions contain significant threats of unintended consequences. China relies on Iran for 10% of its petroleum imports. That means that it will never cooperate in imposing sanctions on oil exports because it cannot without disastrous effects on its economy and Europe’s economy as well, because of global economic linkages.

Germany and Italy import Iranian oil, as well as India, China, Japan and South Korea. The economic stability of those countries could be affected by French President Sarkozy’s proposal to sanction Iranian oil.

Higher oil prices would ripple across the world. Oil producers would reap a windfall and consumers would go into recession. That is why hedge fund managers are buying options that oil will reach $140 or $150 the barrel.

Banking sanctions have extensive backlash potential as well. India favors non-proliferation of nuclear weapons programs and related capabilities. Earlier this year an Indian bank agreed to cooperate in limited banking sanctions against Iran.

When Indian oil refiners found they could not use Indian banking facilities to pay for Iranian oil imports, Iran stopped shipping oil to India, 12% of whose oil imports come from Iran. The refiners found a work-around to keep the oil flowing.

The lesson is that sanctions on Iranian banks would have consequences for China, India, Russia, Italy, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the UAE and Turkey, before the sanctions hurt Iran. Iran is one of the few countries that continued to grow during the 2008 global economic crisis; has a favorable balance of payments, and has significant cash reserves owing to the high price of crude in the past three years.

It might be time for world leaders to devise more imaginative policy responses than punishment through sanctions to achieve compliant behavior by Iran. One of the downsides of an increasingly integrated global economy is the unintended consequences of sanctions.

He also had this to say about the recent “friendly”-fire incident on the Af-Pak border:

NightWatch research of operations reports from the northern border region of Afghanistan, where the Haqqanis operate, suggests that Pakistani tribal paramilitary forces or regular army forces stationed near the border routinely provide artillery and mortar fire across the border into Afghanistan in support of Taliban infiltration or Haqqani attack operations inside Afghanistan. This has been occurring for a decade, but this time it backfired.

Meanwhile, John Hood comments at the Corner on the rash of explosions in Iran:

I guess U.S. and Western politicians has been treading carefully around the reality of the situation, perhaps for good reason, but does the political class really think the rest of us don’t know what’s happening in Iran right now? The Israelis or agents acting in their behalf or interests are subjecting the Iranian nuclear program to attack. First they hit a base outside of Tehran two weeks ago, taking out the head of Iran’s missile defense force along with a couple dozen other military personnel and some key real estate. Then on Monday they hit a facility near Isfahan that houses one of the country’s uranium-enrichment sites.

Presumably, American leaders and other Western officials know what is going on, even if they haven’t been actively supporting the strikes on Iran. In response, the Iranian government orchestrated an assault on the British embassy ”” there being no comparable Israeli or American target handy ”” and will attempt terrorist or military reprisals as soon as they can.

In other words, the question of whether the military option should be used against Iran’s nuclear program is now moot. It is being used. Now what?

With regard to Pakistan, today STRATFOR published a substantial essay, by Nate Hughes, on the context and consequences of the latest mishap. Read it here.

Too Rational?

Here’s some common sense from Thomas Sowell, in the context of an essay about Newt Gingrich’s position on immigration:

Let’s go back to square one. The purpose of American immigration laws and policies is not to be either humane or inhumane to illegal immigrants. The purpose of immigration laws and policies is to serve the national interest of this country.

There is no inherent right to come live in the United States, in disregard of whether the American people want you here. Nor does the passage of time confer any such right retroactively.

…When you import people, you import cultures, including cultures that have been far less successful in providing decent lives and decent livelihoods. The American people have a right to decide for themselves whether they want unlimited imports of cultures from other countries.

At one time, immigrants came to America to become Americans. Today, the apostles of multiculturalism and grievance-mongering have done their best to keep foreigners foreign and, if possible, feeling aggrieved. Our own schools and colleges teach grievances.

Read the rest here.

Well, I’ll Be!

Here’s a stunning development, a real shocker:

Early Results in Egypt Show a Mandate for Islamists

Seems to me there was somebody who saw this coming almost a year ago, even before the Times started writing things like “We can think of no better rebuttal to Osama bin Laden and other extremists.” Back around January 28th, I think it was. Wish I could remember.

The older I get, the more it amazes me how persistently people expect things to go well, even when there are other people involved.

It Only Encourages Them

Interesting item over at Jeffery Hodges’ place: Jeff comments on an interview with the prominent Egyptian Protestant Ramez Atallah.

Atallah talks about the unique centrality of Islam in Arabic-speaking lands. He also has this to say about Western indignation over the ubiquitous persecution of Christians in Muslim territory:

I need you to please understand that Muslims hate it when the West speaks up for Christians. They absolutely despise it and we become the victims.

More here.

Grumble

This from the Telegraph:

Olympic swimming records set to tumble at London 2012 as Speedo unveil Fastskin3 swimwear system

I realize I’m just an old fossil, but this is a depressing trend. Next it’ll be quantum-tunneling suits, or something.

I think the ancient Greeks had the right idea: make ’em compete in the nude. It’d boost ratings, too.

Carotica

Bonneville Salt Flats, 462 m.p.h. Here.

Ask Chuck!

As you already know, the Congressional deficit-reduction “supercommittee” failed to find a paltry $1.2 trillion dollars worth of trimmable fat in the Federal budget over the next ten years. Given that you could confiscate all corporate profits each year in America and still only cover six months of government spending, we’re obviously living way, way beyond our means, and it’s hard for a lot of us to believe that even these seasoned professional money-sluicers really couldn’t agree on any adipose tissue to excise. ($1.2 trillion over ten years doesn’t even begin to solve the problem, of course, and the real fact of the matter is that this once-great nation is now completely, utterly screwed — but it would at least have been a nice gesture.)

Well, here’s game-show host Chuck Woollery to show us just how easy it can be.

Keeping The Heat On

There’s been another wave of leaked “Climategate” emails, if you’re interested in this sort of thing.

Jim Lacey discusses them over at NRO, and Alana Goodman does the same at Commentary.

See also this searchable database — and this item too, over at Duff and Nonsense.

Mola Mola!

I stopped by Wellfleet Harbor shortly before sunset today to take in the view. Here’s the scene, looking southwest from the seawall at Kendrick Avenue (forgive the poor quality – I took these shots with the camera in my phone, which has a blurry lens):

Wait a minute — what the hell is that thing on the beach? I climbed down for a closer look. Here’s a closeup:

Another angle:

What is it? It’s a mola, also known as an “ocean sunfish“: weird critters that are little more than a gigantic swimming head. (They look like this when they aren’t decomposing on the beach.) This was a small one, maybe about about four-and-a-half feet long — but they can grow to truly enormous size, as you can see here.

I’d heard that they’d been washing ashore in these parts lately, but this is the first one I’ve seen.

Paul Motian, 1931-2011

Here’s one that I missed on Tuesday (and thanks to our friend Peter for mentioning it) — Paul Motian, a jazz drummer of sublime artistry and one of the most versatile and influential players of all time, died last week at the age of 80. (The cause was myelodysplastic syndrome, the same affliction that took Michael Brecker from us in 2007.)

I saw Mr. Motian play many times, and had always hoped that I would have a chance to work with him in the studio someday, but never did.

His genius was attentiveness, understatement, nuance, and elegance. There was nobody else like him.

Here he is with his quintet — featuring Lee Konitz, Joe Lovano, Marc Johnson, and Bill Frisell — back in 1995.

Tom Wicker, 1926-2011

Tom Wicker, one of the leading journalists of his era, has died at 85. His New York Times obituary is here.

Wicker was with JFK in Dallas on November 22nd, 1963, and filed his report from a pay phone on the evening of that awful day. You can read it here.

This And That

We’ve been on the road all day, so nothing substantial here tonight — just a few brief items.

First: yesterday’s Thanksgiving prep presented a good example of why punctuation matters, with particular regard to the hyphenation of compound adjectives.

When you string together a pair of adjectives so that the first modifies the second, as for example in the sentence “I disciplined the recalcitrant okapi with a red-hot poker”, there should be a hyphen joining the two so that the meaning is clear to the reader. A phrase such as “a long dead eel” is ambiguous: our piscine corpus delicti might simply be an outsized specimen (a long, dead eel), or it might be an eel of unspecified proportions that passed on ages ago (a long-dead eel).

Which brings us to baby carrots. As it happens, those “baby” carrots you can buy bags of in the produce section aren’t really baby carrots at all — they are ordinary grown-up carrots that have been cut down (presumably on some sort of carrot lathe) to look like babies. The people who sell us these things would rather we not think about that, though, and still want to reel us in with that appealing word “baby” — so what do they do?

It’s very sneaky: they call them “Baby Cut Carrots”. What they really are is “Baby-Cut Carrots”, of course — but the missing hyphen makes all the difference. In a literate society, they’d be hauled into Punctuation Court for false advertising, but this is America.

Second: I don’t know if this has been happening to many of you lately, but it’s been bugging me a couple of times a week now. I’ll switch on my computer and get a pop-up message telling me that there’s an update available for my machine’s Java framework, and asking me if I want to install it. I stop what I’m doing, click OK, grant the necessary permissions, and the installer starts downloading the update. The progress bar creeps along — and when it’s done, up pops another message saying that this software had already been installed on my machine, and asking if I want to install it again anyway.

Of course I don’t. Why the hell doesn’t this work correctly? It’s absolutely trivial for the Java framework to keep track of what version is currently installed, and to communicate in silence with the Oracle Corporation server to find out what the latest available version is, before bothering me about it. What the bejesus is wrong with these people?

Finally, here’s an interesting post (with a comment from your humble correspondent) by Dr Bill Vallicella, in which he says that in his opinion the core problems of philosophy are probably insoluble.

I’m pooped, so that’s all for now.

Happy Thanksgiving!

To each and every one of you. Among the many blessings I am grateful for today is having you all as readers and correspondents.

I’m too busy cooking to write an extended meditation, but for a perfect Thanksgiving homily it would be hard to do better than the one Dr. William Vallicella posts every year. Here it is.

It’s All Good Fun, Till Somebody Puts An Eye Out

For centuries, Sikhs have been the warriors of choice for elite fighting units throughout South Asia.

And here’s why.

Euro Watch

Matt Yglesias comments at Slate on the three realistic prospects for the Eurozone: disintegration, German domination, or… actual democracy.

As Mr. Yglesias points out, creating a unified, pan-European democratic republic would be a very “tall order”. As for German domination, my memory’s not as good as it once was, but it does seem to me that there was already some problem or other with that, a while back.

Meanwhile, over at Gates Of Vienna, Baron Bodissey writes:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says that Eurozone member states that do not stay within budgetary rules will face a partial loss of national sovereignty. Yet any country that submits to the EU’s budgetary restrictions has already lost part of its national sovereignty. That’s some catch, that Catch-22!

It sure is!

Finally, (with a hat tip to our friend David Duff) here’s UKIP’s Nigel Farage, speaking plain truth to smirking power. It won’t accomplish anything, but I have to admit it does give one rather a Chris-Matthews-style thrill up the leg.

Skunk Works

A recent article in the Times took a look at Google X, Google’s hush-hush advanced-projects lab.

It’s a place where your refrigerator could be connected to the Internet, so it could order groceries when they ran low. Your dinner plate could post to a social network what you’re eating. Your robot could go to the office while you stay home in your pajamas. And you could, perhaps, take an elevator to outer space.

These are just a few of the dreams being chased at Google X, the clandestine lab where Google is tackling a list of 100 shoot-for-the-stars ideas. In interviews, a dozen people discussed the list; some work at the lab or elsewhere at Google, and some have been briefed on the project. But none would speak for attribution because Google is so secretive about the effort that many employees do not even know the lab exists.

I’d be mighty curious to know what they’ve got in the pipeline. Might have to call upon some of our deep-cover operatives…

All Roads Lead

Here’s something odd I just read in a tooltip at XKCD:

Wikipedia trivia: if you take any article, click on the first link in the article text not in parentheses or italics, and then repeat, you will eventually end up at “Philosophy”.

I’ve spent the past fifteen minutes trying it. So far, it’s worked every time, and it hasn’t taken very many clicks, either.

Two Pictures

Here’s an unusual image, courtesy of Wish I Didn’t Know:

Read More »

Into This Nothingness

Here’s an almost unbearably poignant tale of the Japanese tsunami.

Diana Moon Glampers, Call Your Office

Here’s one that’s been making the rounds: it’s an Op-Ed from yesterday’s Times making a point that in a less Orwellian world would come as no surprise to anyone, namely that innate qualities make a significant difference in the statistical distribution of life outcomes. We read:

Exhibit A is a landmark study of intellectually precocious youths directed by the Vanderbilt University researchers David Lubinski and Camilla Benbow. They and their colleagues tracked the educational and occupational accomplishments of more than 2,000 people who as part of a youth talent search scored in the top 1 percent on the SAT by the age of 13. (Scores on the SAT correlate so highly with I.Q. that the psychologist Howard Gardner described it as a “thinly disguised’ intelligence test.) The remarkable finding of their study is that, compared with the participants who were “only’ in the 99.1 percentile for intellectual ability at age 12, those who were in the 99.9 percentile ”” the profoundly gifted ”” were between three and five times more likely to go on to earn a doctorate, secure a patent, publish an article in a scientific journal or publish a literary work. A high level of intellectual ability gives you an enormous real-world advantage.

… It would be nice if intellectual ability and the capacities that underlie it were important for success only up to a point. In fact, it would be nice if they weren’t important at all, because research shows that those factors are highly stable across an individual’s life span. But wishing doesn’t make it so.

No, it doesn’t. Neither does pretending it isn’t so, or insisting it isn’t so, or making public policy based on the assumption that it isn’t so.

Here’s a related statistical fact, of no less significance: the qualities under examination here have been repeatedly demonstrated to be highly heritable (another commonsense datum that would once have been obvious to all, but nowadays only to professional psychometricians, black-hearted curmudgeons, and breeders of livestock).

Taken together, what are we to make of these results? Gee, I really can’t say. And you’d better not, either.

Suitable For Framing, Or Wrapping Fish

Here’s a summary of the prospects for the Obamacare case coming up at SCOTUS. This one’s a biggie: it’s the last line of defense for those who believe that the idea of “enumerated powers” has any meaning at all.

Wow, Pretty Super

Well, it looks as if the deficit-reduction “supercommittee” is about to fail. Political analyst Larry Sabato tweeted:

Could it really be that 12 able legislators will fail utterly at the most important task they’ll ever be asked to do?

Yeah, I’m sure he’s shocked, along with the rest of us. U.S. government spending is an utterly intractable problem; you could confiscate 100% of annual corporate profits in America and still only cover six months of it. As a sage observer pointed out in a book I read recently, we are doomed.

Once the committee officially chokes, a series of automatic cuts will go into effect. On the block will be discretionary defense spending.

I just hope we’ll still be able to build a few of these.

Blood-Baath

This from VOA:

Grenades Hit Syria’s Baath Party Building in Damascus

Syrian activists say several rocket-propelled grenades hit a ruling Baath Party building in Damascus Sunday, as President Bashar al-Assad vowed he will not “bow down” to international pressure to ease his brutal crackdown on dissent.

The Local Coordination Committees activist network and several residents Sunday reported numerous explosions in the center of the Syrian capital. They said fire trucks were headed to the area amid a heavy police presence. There was no immediate verification of the reports, and other eyewitnesses saw no signs of damage.

If confirmed, the attack would be the first such incident in the Syrian capital since the anti-government uprising began in March. The reported assault occurred hours after an Arab League deadline passed for Damascus to end the bloodshed.

As security analysts remind us, uprisings against government authority are “centripetal”: they seek the center of power. As long as violence is limited to outlying districts, the ruling clique is in no immediate danger. That attacks are now beginning in Damascus shows that this conflict is entering a dangerous new phase.

Meanwhile, as the social framework breaks down in hotspots like the city of Homs, diversity has, predictably, begun to confer its usual blessings — with savagery on the rise between the majority Sunni population and the Alawites (the offshoot Shia sect to which Syria’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad, belongs). Christians are just trying to keep their heads down, but if they have any sense will soon be fleeing in droves.

Angels And Demons

Here’s a dark item by Victor Hanson on the supple reality inhabited by our chief executive.

The Doomsday Machine

More Shatner! This time a cautionary tale, and a timely one, too.

Can you believe this guy’s 80 years old?

iSpy

As we grow more and more dependent on interactive electronic media, we’re also giving away more and more information about everything we say and do. We don’t seem to mind much, given that we’ve blithely been making this tradeoff en masse for some time now, but the latest generation of smartphones have upped the ante a bit.

Learn more here.

Bears In The China Shop

In the discussion we linked to yesterday (well worth your time, by the way, if you are interested in matters military and strategic), George Friedman argued that although China has made a Great Leap Forward beyond anything Mao could have imagined, it is now reaching a point of economic fatigue, if not exhaustion. In particular, he pointed out that China’s manufacturing system produces far more than China itself can possibly consume, and so its economic security depends very sensitively upon the fiscal health of Europe and the United States. A serious collapse in those interlocking markets would be very bad indeed for China; perhaps far worse than for the consumer nations themselves.

In this morning’s KGS NightWatch, analyst John McCreary made the same points:

China: The Ministry of Commerce said on 16 November that China’s exports are feeling pressure from global economic uncertainties. A spokesman said the ministry cannot be optimistic about the export situation during the coming period, citing a downshift in global economic recovery, a downgrade of the US credit rating and the expansion of the European debt crisis. He said that frequent protectionist measures and trade disputes have had a “relatively large influence” on China’s exports and that these issues, along with rising costs at home, have complicated China’s foreign trade outlook.

Comment: The Xinhua report is significant for several reasons. First it disclosed that the Chinese government expects that the credit rating of the United States will be downgraded. Second, the Chinese economists predict a contraction of the global economy. Finally, the Chinese anticipate a contraction of globalization as the result of protectionist policies, in other words, a reassertion of economic nationalism. The Chinese seem to expect that the export markets for cheap Chinese manufactures will shrink and the prices for raw materials will rise.

The apparent Chinese linkage of the US credit rating to the European debt crisis implies that the Chinese know or believe that US banks have much greater exposure to European sovereign debt than they have admitted. The Chinese assessment evidently is that Europe will drag down the US.

One Chinese economist, a professor of finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, recently wrote that the Chinese banking system is nearly bankrupt already and China’s Gross Domestic Product is declining, but the Chinese are hiding the data. He wrote that “every province in China is Greece.”

This note is a warning to hedge bets in China in 2012.

China’s Blue-Water Navy

For you strategic-security wonks, here’s a meaty item: an in-depth discussion between foreign-policy expert Robert Kaplan and STRATFOR’s George Friedman on the changing balance of sea power between the U.S. and China.

Jon Gomm

I don’t usually go in much for “tappers”, but this is pretty cool.

HT: Devin Townsend.

A Wellfleet Walk

It was an unusually mild November day here in the Outer Cape, and I went for a walk in Wellfleet’s Fox Island Marsh & Pilgrim Spring Woodlands Conservation Area, which I’d never explored.

While it’s hardly the Bridger Wilderness, the conservation area offers a lovely trail through pine forests down to the salt marshes at the edge of the bay. I snapped a few photos (of varying quality, I’m afraid).

Just past the trailhead at Pilgrim Spring Road, the path passes a steep bank, and gives us a good look at a common Outer Cape soil profile. It’s called by the Russian name podzol, meaning “ash soil”. In podzol soils the colored materials — dark-brown humus from decaying plants, and oxides from rusting minerals — have been leached away down into the sandy ground, leaving an ashy-looking layer that is light grey or even white. You can see it in this photo, sort of:

The ashy layer is right at the surface in many places along the path:

Although the climate in the Outer Cape is more temperate than the mainland’s, there aren’t very many trees that can flourish in the sandy, nutrient-poor soil. Mostly it’s pitch pines and scrubby little oaks. We see both as the path ascends from the trailhead into the forest:

Once we get deeper into the woods, the scrub oaks thin out, and the understory opens up:

Here’s another shot of these quiet pine woods:

Mosses and lichens seem to do well here. Here’s a pale-green lichen, well-established on a fallen pine:

Here’s the common lichen Usnea, also known as “Old Man’s Beard”:

More Usnea, on a pitch-pine branch:

Here’s a young pitch pine that had managed to produce exactly one pine-cone:

After a mile and a half or so the trail approaches the bay:

And here we are, near a little bend in the shoreline called Whalebone Point. We’re looking southeast, more or less, toward Old Wharf Point, Loagy Bay, and Lieutenant Island:

Here’s another shot from the same place, looking a bit more to the east:

Wellfleet’s a small place — the Cape is only about five miles wide here at its widest, and narrows to only a mile or so just south of town — but thanks to its fabulously convoluted bayside coastline and its rolling glacial-moraine “knob-and-kettle” topography, it has more secluded hollows, woodlands, ponds, marshes, islands, beaches, creeks, coves, and inlets than you’d ever imagine possible. I’ve been poking around out here for more than 25 years, and still haven’t seen them all.

Offense Taken

There’s a good piece by Katie Roiphe on “sexual harassment” in today’s Times.

Money quote:

The creativity and resourcefulness of the definitions, the broadness and rigor of the rules and codes, have always betrayed their more Orwellian purpose…

Also:

Codes of sexual harassment imagine an entirely symmetrical universe, where people are never outrageous, rude, awkward, excessive or confused, where sexual interest is always absent or reciprocated, in other words a universe that does not entirely resemble our own.

Read the rest here.

Land of Opportunity

One melodic voice in the complex polyphony of the “OWS” uprising is the lament of the young college grads who, despite their hard-earned degrees in important fields of study, today find themselves laden with scholastic debt and unable to descry a clear path to prosperity. It’s terribly unfair: they’ve done what they were supposed to do, but the System, which is blatantly rigged against “the 99%” in favor of an entrenched plutocracy, has failed them.

They demand Social Justice, by any means necessary.

Meanwhile, a fellow by the name of Shawn Carter — a young black man who, abandoned by his father, was raised in a housing project in one of the worst inner-city districts in the country, dropped out of high school to pursue an interest in rap music, and who is now better known as the music- and fashion-industry mogul ‘Jay-Z’, husband of the R&B siren Beyoncé — will be selling “Occupy Wall Street”-themed t-shirts.

Mr Carter will be keeping the proceeds. He is worth an estimated $450 million.

The “moral of the story”? As Satchmo famously said: “Man, if you have to ask, you’ll never know.”

The Last Best Hope Of Earth

Longtime readers will know that I am something of a chauvinist as regards Western civilization, ever-ready to mount the ramparts for the sake of its defense and preservation.

Every now and then, though, I think it’s important to remind ourselves just why this incomparable edifice is so worthy of our devotion and sacrifice — and this being Veterans Day, I can think of no better opportunity.

Here you go.

Surf’s Up!

Way up.

That Gap

Here’s a tart item by Charles Murray about the prevalence of certain groups in educational “gifted” programs, and the willfully blinkered obstinacy of media commentators thereupon.

One quibble. In response to a journalist’s claim that “most gifted programs explicitly target students with natural talents and aptitude, which are spread evenly across racial groups and social classes”, Murray writes:

Ignore the assertion about racial groups. I am told that disputing that assertion can get one into trouble. Just think about the assertion that natural talents and aptitudes are evenly spread across social classes.

In what kind of society is it possible that natural talents and aptitudes are evenly spread across social classes? One option is a society inhabited by humans who do not pass their talents and aptitudes along to their children. But there is no such thing. Children’s abilities are correlated with their parents’ abilities throughout the world and have been known to be correlated for as long as humans have been observing and writing about other humans. A large part of that transmission of abilities is genetic. Regarding IQ, geneticists have now established beyond serious dispute that fluid intelligence””similar to the famous g, general mental ability””is at least 51 percent heritable.

Given that parent-child relationship, the only society in which talent in children would be evenly spread across social classes is a totalitarian state in which ability has no relationship to success in life.

He’s right that the only society in which talent in children would be evenly spread across social classes is a state in which ability has no relationship to success and social status. But that doesn’t require totalitarianism, just a non-meritocratic society permanently stratified by clan or family criteria (of which examples abound).

‘Furrier New’, Or Perhaps ‘Hairial’

Busy today, so just a brief item.

Leg-Hair Font.

No Definable Grievance

Further thoughts on OWS from Victor Hanson, here.

On The First Day Of Christmas, The Government Snatched From Me…

…15¢ to pay for “a new Federal program to improve the image and marketing of Christmas trees”.

Story here. (Or maybe here.)

(HT: Drudge.)

— Update! No doubt due to the uproar generated by this post, the administration is now reconsidering.

The EU Unravels

What’s at the root of the deepening crisis in the European Union? George Friedman of STRATFOR attributes it to persistent nationalism, and in recent weeks has written a pair of substantial posts articulating this view.

The first, The Crisis of Europe and European Nationalism, was published on September 13th. We read (boldface emphasis added by me):

From my point of view, the pressure and slaughter inflicted by two world wars on both countries created a collective mental breakdown…

…The Europeans were searching for a way to overcome their history.

One problem was the status of Germany. The deeper problem was nationalism. Not only had Europe failed to unite under a single flag via conquest but also World War I had shattered the major empires, creating a series of smaller states that had been fighting to be free. The argument was that it was nationalism, and not just German nationalism, that had created the 20th century. Europe’s task was therefore to overcome nationalism and create a structure in which Europe united and retained unique nations as cultural phenomena and not political or economic entities. At the same time, by embedding Germany in this process, the German problem would be solved as well.

The European Union was designed not simply to be a useful economic tool but also to be a means of European redemption. The focus on economics was essential. It did not want to be a military alliance, since such alliances were the foundation of Europe’s tragedy. By focusing on economic matters while allowing military affairs to be linked to NATO and the United States, and by not creating a meaningful joint-European force, the Europeans avoided the part of their history that terrified them while pursuing the part that enticed them: economic prosperity. The idea was that free trade regulated by a central bureaucracy would suppress nationalism and create prosperity without abolishing national identity. The common currency ”” the euro ”” is the ultimate expression of this hope. The Europeans hoped that the existence of some Pan-European structure could grant wealth without surrendering the core of what it means to be French or Dutch or Italian.

Yet even during the post-World War II era of security and prosperity, some Europeans recoiled from the idea of a transfer of sovereignty. The consensus that many in the long line of supporters of European unification believed existed simply didn’t. And today’s euro crisis is the first serious crisis that Europe has faced in the years since, with nationalism beginning to re-emerge in full force.

In the end, Germans are Germans and Greeks are Greeks. Germany and Greece are different countries in different places with different value systems and interests. The idea of sacrificing for each other is a dubious concept.The idea of sacrificing for the European Union is a meaningless concept. The European Union has no moral claim on Europe beyond promising prosperity and offering a path to avoid conflict. These are not insignificant goals, but when the prosperity stops, a large part of the justification evaporates and the aversion to conflict (at least political discord) begins to dissolve.

How could anyone with an understanding of history and human nature have expected this to work? Perhaps the example of America gave a false hope to the transnationalist elites who imagined that one could, with a promise of prosperity as a sop, simply switch off the deep, and ancient, cultural and ethnic loyalties (and resentments) of the various indigenous European peoples. But America is a very different place than Europe: its immigrants (until recently at least) have always come here with the explicit intention of becoming part of the historic American experiment, setting aside national allegiances, and joining the ambient American culture. Europe, on the other hand, had just emerged from two horrifying paroxysms of war — and it is a much overlooked fact of the history of the late 20th century that the relatively stable peace after the second great war was the result, in large part, of the sanguinary disaggregation of ethnic and cultural blocs that had been left politically and socially entangled by the victors of the first. (It took further years, and the dissolution of the Soviet empire, for the same violent process to unfold in Yugoslavia.)

In other words, no sooner had the different peoples of Europe at long last sorted themselves out, at a hideous price, into relatively independent and homogeneous living arrangements, than they found themselves being yoked together once again.

A couple of weeks ago, Lawrence Auster summed up his own very similar view:

[T]he ultimate cause of the European financial crisis is not economic, but moral and spiritual. To sum up the argument:

— After World War II, the leaders of Europe made a disastrous moral error, associating the ordinary life of the European peoples, including the very existence of their nations, with Nazi-like evil.

— Therefore the nations of Europe had to be eliminated at all costs, by merging them into one sovereign power.

— Merging them into one sovereign power required, inter alia, that they all have the same currency.

— But the adoption of a common currency for all of Europe has created the financial crisis, and the insistence on keeping the common currency makes it impossible to cure the financial crisis.

Sixty-six years after Adolf Hitler put a gun to his head, the fear of him still rules Europe, driving it to commit not only national and cultural suicide but economic suicide as well.

This is the same point that George Friedman made above — that the postwar elites of Europe, aghast at the fathomless horrors their high civilization had created, sought not only prosperity through economic union, but moral redemption. The demon that Europe’s elites knew they had to slay on this new, secular altar was the ethnic and cultural distinctiveness of Europe’s indigenous peoples and their various nations — and with it the natural human tendency to enjoy, take pride in, and seek to preserve and defend the character, traditions, autonomy and identity of one’s homeland. (Indeed, I have believed for some time that modern Western civilization’s phobic and dangerously radical aversion to all forms of discrimination is in large part a kind of ideological hysteresis in reaction to Nazism — a point that Mr. Auster has made as well.)

Mr. Friedman posted another essay on the subject today, Europe, the International System and a Generational Shift. He continues in the same vein:

National identity was as deeply embedded in Europe as elsewhere, and historical differences were compounded by historical resentments, particularly those aimed toward Germany. The real solution to European wars was the creation of a European nation, but that was simply impossible. The European Union tried to solve the problem by retaining both national identity and national regimes. Simultaneously, a broader European identity was conceived based on a set of principles, and above all, on the idea of a single European economy binding together disparate nations. The reasoning was that if the European Union provided the foundation for European prosperity, then the continued existence of nations in Europe would not challenge the European Union. Perhaps, over time, this would see a decline of particular nationalisms in favor of a European identity. This assumed that prosperity would cause national identity and tensions to subside. If that were true, then it would work. But there is more to Europe politically speaking than an enhanced trading area, and the economics of Europe are hardly homogeneous.

… Between 1991 and 2008, all of this was buried under extraordinary prosperity. The first crisis revealed the underlying fault line, however. The U.S. subprime crisis happened to trigger it, but any financial crisis would have revealed the fault line. It was not a crisis about the euro, nor was it even a crisis about economics. It was actually a crisis about nationalism.

… This system was created in a world in which European politics had been declared in abeyance. Germany was occupied. The Americans provided security and inter-European fighting was not allowed. Now, the Americans are gone, the Germans are back and European international politics are bubbling up to the surface.

In short, the European project is failing at precisely the point that it had been attempting to solve ”” nationalism. The ability of leaders to make deals depends on authority that is slipping away. The public has not yet clearly defined the alternatives, but that process is under way.

Mr. Friedman is right about all of this, I think. He does go on to make one point I’m not so sure about, though:

It is similar to what is happening in the United States with one definitive exception: In the United States, the tension between mass and elite does not threaten to disintegrate the republic. In Europe, it does.

I wish I shared his optimism about the prospects here at home.

All Our Vices Are Made Virtues

Here’s an entertaining item by “David Kahane”: The Cold Civil War.

Bad Lip Reading

I know I’m way behind the curve here, and you’ve probably already seen it, but this stuff just kills me. See Rick Perry, here, and Mitt Romney, here.

Homepage here.

No Question

In an exchange of emails with an old friend just now about the Conrad Murray verdict, I wrote “I really can’t comment much about the trial because I paid it no attention at all, and don’t know any of the details.”

But when I looked at the note before sending it, I saw that I had in fact typed “I really can’t comment much about the trial because I paid it no attention at all, and don’t no any of the details.”

I think that’s an odd sort of typo to make — writing ‘no’ instead of ‘know’. They’re completely different words, expressing utterly unrelated meanings, and all they have in common is the way they sound. I wonder what making a slip like that means in terms of what’s happening in my brain as I write.

At Yale, 60 Years On

Here’s a splendid remembrance of William F. Buckley, by one who had the privilege of editing his copy.

Guy Stuff

Here’s an important breakthrough:

Boys do better on tests of technical aptitude (for example, mechanical aptitude tests) than girls. The same is true for adults. A new study published in Perspectives on Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, describes a theory explaining how the difference comes about: the root cause is that boys are just more interested in technical things, like taking apart a bike, than girls are.

More on this startling result here.

Razing Cain

Here’s Juan Williams, formerly of NPR, responding to the storm of criticism that Herman Cain has faced from liberal black commentators.

Everybody’s wondering who was behind the airing of the sexual-harassment allegations against Mr. Cain. I’m inclined to doubt that Barack Obama’s organization is responsible, because it would serve their cause far better to wait until the general election, in the hope that Mr. Cain defeats Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination. Mr. Cain’s team blamed Rick Perry, but has since backed off. Could it be the Romney campaign’s doing? He certainly has the most to gain.

Andy Rooney, 1919-2011

We note with sadness the death, at 92, of Andy Rooney. People tended to poke fun at him a bit in his later years, but I always liked him for his gentle humor and his plain-spokenness.

America: Hell On Earth

Today a friend mailed me a clipping from last Saturday’s New York Times. It was an Op-Ed by Charles M. Blow, in which Mr. Blow presented a chart summarizing a report ranking the world’s nations on their level of “social justice”. (I’ve reproduced it below the fold.)

The columns in the chart include an “overall social justice rating”, which rolls together such measures of “social justice” as, apparently, “environmental policies”. Mostly, though, they measure “poverty”.

Taken at face value, the chart would suggest — as Mr. Blow intends his readers to conclude — that the U.S.A. is clearly on a lower moral plane than the nations near the top of the list.

However:

Note the nations at the top of the pile: Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Holland, Switzerland, Luxembourg…

What do they all have in common? They’re all northern European nations with low ethnic diversity and correspondingly high social cohesion.

Low poverty in Scandinavia? Someone once pointed that out to Milton Friedman, and he replied: “That’s interesting, because in America among Scandinavians, we have no poverty either.”

Just saying.

Read More »

1: Destroy Civilization. 2: ? 3: Profit!

Looking At The Left‘s El Marco pays a visit to Occupy Denver, with notebook and camera. Here.

Looking Ahead, Long Ago

Nice: for a limited time, free access to Scientific American archives from long ago.

Have a look.

The 99% Kneads Some Dough

Our friend The Stiletto has a nourishing little parable for us, here.