Spring Forward, Fall Back

Ah, the Arab Spring — that sweet season, so long overdue, in which secular democracy began at last to bloom in the Muslim nations of the Middle East, ending a long dark winter of tyranny, tribalism and theocratic oppression. Observers here in the West swooned at the sight of all those brave young people, their faces alight with hope, standing up as one to build a better future. We always knew, after all, that people everywhere are just like us, and so of course they want the same things we want: democracy, secular government, women’s rights, the many freedoms we take for granted, and above all Tolerance, Diversity, and Inclusiveness. (Maybe they weren’t ready for gay marriage just yet, but they’d get there once they got the hang of it all. Rome wasn’t built in a day.)

Alas, in the event the soil turns out not to have been as fertile as some had imagined. The “reformer” Bashar al-Assad is slaughtering his subjects in Syria. Hamas and Fatah have joined forces in Palestine. Saleh retains his grip on Yemen. The Gulf Cooperative Council’s armored formations have forcefully imposed order in Bahrain. The Libyan uprising has, with NATO’s help and the bumbling support of the USA, descended into civil war. And despite the absurd psychological projections of many here in the West, the “revolution” in Egypt that provided convenient cover for the military to oust Hosni Mubarak has led, as I expected, to ascendant Islamism — and to what has been, throughout history, one of Diversity’s most reliable blessings: gruesome sectarian violence, in this case renewed persecution of the Copts.

With regard to that last, I’ve been struck this week by the prevailing tendency of our news organizations to refer to these recent assaults as “clashes” — a term that, with its implication of symmetry, was no doubt carefully chosen to spare further amplification of Islam’s reputation for intolerance.

I’m not the only one, it seems. Andrew McCarthy comments here.

The Whole Internet Thing

Although there’s plenty in the political news to comment on (for example, President Obama’s immigration speech, and his telling businesses to “step up” and hire more workers), I just haven’t any time this week.

We do, however, have a prescient item by the late Douglas Adams, sent my way by my friend Howard Robinson.

Here.

Moebius Gears

The Sound And The Fury

Tonight, two items from Christopher Hitchens, who is, thankfully, still with us.

One of the things I’ve always admired most about Mr. Hitchens (apart from his razor-sharp intellect, his quick wit, his willingness to change his mind publicly when reason dictates, his debating skills, and his formidable prose style) is his marvellous speaking voice — a rich and beautifully accented baritone.

Now it seems that the cancer that may soon take his life has, with the cruelly playful sadism so characteristic of the disease, robbed him of the power of speech. He writes about it here.

In the second item, Mr. Hitchens responds to Noam Chomsky’s commentary on the death of Osama bin Laden.

Service Notice

Due to the demands of the workplace and a flurry of evening activities, I’ll not have much time for blogging this week, and things may be fairly quiet around here.

Now What?

Between a drumming gig in the wilds of rural New Jersey yesterday, and Mother’s Day doings today, it’s been one of those busy weekends. So for tonight, an analyst’s report sent our way by the indefatigable JK: Osama bin Laden’s Death: Implications and Considerations.

I haven’t had time yet to read it through myself, but I’m sure it will be of interest to some of you, at least.

Here.

The Proof

Well, predictably enough, the conspiracy theorists are out in force, alleging that the OBL operation was a hoax.

Fortunately, our network of embedded USN sources has sent us, by clandestine channels, incontrovertible evidence straight from the deck of the USS Carl Vinson (that’s CVN-70, to you InfoDiss readers).

This should, I think, put matters to rest:

Read More »

From The Mailbag

This just in, from a reader:

Read More »

Works For Me

When it comes to thinking about human consciousness and reason, people divide, broadly speaking, into two camps: those who see consciousness and reason as primary features of reality, and those who see them as emerging from the activity of suitably configured physical systems (in particular, human brains). For those in the first camp, consciousness is in some important sense prior to the physical brain, and reason apprehends and connects abstracta that have an existence independent of physically instantiated thinkers.

The contrasting view (and the one that I incline toward) is that consciousness arises, in some way that we do not yet understand, from the workings of the brain — which means that before there were any brains in in the world, there was no consciousness — and that reason is a practical affair, a Good Trick that we have learned as a highly effective (and therefore highly adaptive) way of modeling the world so as to predict those aspects of the future that have, over the eons, had some bearing on our reproductive success.

C.S. Lewis considered this physicalist view of reason to be “The Cardinal Difficulty of Naturalism”. Genuine Reason, he argued, must flow according to the logical relations between ground and consequent, while any form of “reason” instantiated as a purely physical system can only proceed according to physical cause and effect. Therefore, he argued, our Reason must cannot rest upon a purely physical foundation, or we wouldn’t be able to trust it.

For Lewis this was a sort of reductio ad absurdum: of course we do consider reason to be trustworthy, and so the only possible basis fit can possibly have is one that transcends the “merely” physical. But as I argued in a post some time ago, there’s another possibility: that our reason actually is quite limited and imperfect, in ways that are hard for us to see — just as we’d expect from a purely practical brain-based system that has been cobbled together over the eons by natural selection. Our trust, in other words, may go too far.

A great deal of clever experimentation and neuro-psychological research has been done since C.S. Lewis died (on November 22nd, 1963, by the way), and the peculiarities, defaults, and curious limitations of human cognition have become far more apparent. Among the more recent ideas about why we reason the way we do is one put forward by Dan Sperber and Hugo Mercier in a paper called Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory. Their premise? As Jonathan Haidt explains:

“Reasoning was not designed to pursue the truth. Reasoning was designed by evolution to help us win arguments.”

Here’s the abstract:

Reasoning is generally seen as a means to improve knowledge and make better decisions. However, much evidence shows that reasoning often leads to epistemic distortions and poor decisions. This suggests that the function of reasoning should be rethought. Our hypothesis is that the function of reasoning is argumentative. It is to devise and evaluate arguments intended to persuade. Reasoning so conceived is adaptive given the exceptional dependence of humans on communication and their vulnerability to misinformation. A wide range of evidence in the psychology of reasoning and decision making can be reinterpreted and better explained in the light of this hypothesis. Poor performance in standard reasoning tasks is explained by the lack of argumentative context. When the same problems are placed in a proper argumentative setting, people turn out to be skilled arguers. Skilled arguers, however, are not after the truth but after arguments supporting their views. This explains the notorious confirmation bias. This bias is apparent not only when people are actually arguing but also when they are reasoning proactively from the perspective of having to defend their opinions. Reasoning so motivated can distort evaluations and attitudes and allow erroneous beliefs to persist. Proactively used reasoning also favors decisions that are easy to justify but not necessarily better. In all these instances traditionally described as failures or flaws, reasoning does exactly what can be expected of an argumentative device: Look for arguments that support a given conclusion, and, ceteris paribus, favor conclusions for which arguments can be found.

It’s an interesting idea, though my first impression is that it sounds a bit all-or-nothing: while I can easily see how such social factors could have exerted a strong selection pressure, it seems to me that more objective feedback from the real world must have had a major role to play also.

But I’ve only just run across this, and haven’t yet read the paper (or the article linked below), so I can’t say yet if it makes a truly persuasive, well-reasoned argument.

Learn more here.

We’re Good

This just in, from my old friend Dave Pauley.

Me, Me, Me

From President Obama’s address on the death of Osama bin Laden:

…[S]hortly after taking office, I directed Leon Panetta, the director of the CIA, to make the killing or capture of bin Laden the top priority of our war against al Qaeda, even as we continued our broader efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat his network.

Then, last August, after years of painstaking work by our intelligence community, I was briefed on a possible lead to bin Laden. It was far from certain, and it took many months to run this thread to ground. I met repeatedly with my national security team as we developed more information about the possibility that we had located bin Laden hiding within a compound deep inside of Pakistan. And finally, last week, I determined that we had enough intelligence to take action, and authorized an operation to get Osama bin Laden and bring him to justice.

Today, at my direction, the United States launched a targeted operation against that compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

OK, now here’s a related item.

N.B. I make no warrant for the linked article’s veracity. But if we’ve got to the point where bloggers can’t spread vicious rumors and disseminate unsubstantiated material, then it’s pretty clear the terrorists have won.

Reeling Shadows

While everyone is concentrating on the details of the death of Osama bin Laden, and on what his extinction will mean for the War on Terror, the more interesting question is what will happen in Pakistan. Don’t be surprised if all hell breaks loose.

Our relationship with Pakistan is excruciatingly difficult. As a “secular democracy”, Pakistan is, ostensibly at least, the enemy of our enemy, jihadist Islam — but only sort of, as sympathies within the ISI and the military are clearly divided. At the same time, though, it is also the enemy of our friend: India.

Because Pakistan controls a nuclear arsenal, we have a clear interest in doing what we can to maintain a working relationship with its government and military (if a clear distinction can be made between them), and in doing what we can to prop them up against a determined fundamentalist insurgency of which a great many Pakistanis (not all of them civilians) are partisan supporters. To further this interest we provide a steady flow of money and weapons, despite the fact that much of our largesse ends up where we wouldn’t like to think of it going. (Particularly worrying, especially in light of recent proposals to send state-of-the-art drones to Pakistan, is the cozy relationship between Islamabad and Beijing; it is reasonable to assume that any technology we provide to Pakistan will end up being reverse-engineered in Chinese laboratories.)

Meanwhile the USA is deeply unpopular in Pakistan (viscerally loathed might be a better way of putting it), and so the government’s cooperation with America, and with the secular West generally, is an enormous political liability; the regime exists with the consent and loyalty of only a fraction of its people. Our uneasy alliance with Pakistan, in other words, is a costly one on both ends.

What, in turn, are Pakistan’s interests? As always, local trumps global, and along with its homegrown insurgency, Pakistan’s overarching concern is its contiguous foe, nuclear-armed India. The nightmare scenario for Pakistan would be if Afghanistan, once the US departs (as it inevitably will), were to fall under India’s sway; such an encirclement would be a strategic disaster, and Islamabad must do everything it can to prevent it. With this in mind Pakistan has, since at least the time of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, allied itself with various Afghan militias and tribal factions, to ensure that it can influence Afghanistan’s internal balance of power. These interests and alliances, however, no longer coincide with US interests in the region, as they did during the 1980s, and this divergence makes for a great deal of uncertainty and duplicity as regards tactical cooperation and the sharing of intelligence.

Finally, the secular regime stands on very shaky ground these days. There have been waves of assassinations in recent months — notably, killings of prominent secularist officials for their stand against blasphemy laws — and anti-Western, Islamist sentiment has been running very high indeed. The Raymond Davis case brought things very nearly to a boil, and civil violence now erupts at the slightest provocation. The place is a tinderbox, a powderkeg — choose your metaphor — and although Osama bin Laden may not have been a wildly popular figure in Pakistan, the idea that the Pakistani government sold him out to the US may be enough to light the fuse. Both the US and Pakistan are bending over backward to deny any involvement by Pakistan in the operation, but this is surely just a cover story, and I doubt many will be fooled by it.

Pakistan is the most dangerous place on earth right now. I wonder what will happen next.

Got Him

New York City thanks you, SEAL Team Six.

This will sharpen everything. Osama bin Laden has been such a potent symbol of American impotence that his death will be a jolt of electricity. We’ll see far-reaching effects, I think, quite out of proportion to any tactical, or even strategic, effect his death will have.

The political effect will be powerfully unifying, however briefly, and it can’t help but mute criticism of the administration. (I’d gladly give Mr. Obama a high-five myself — or fist bump, or whatever.) Crowds are gathering at the White House and Ground Zero, cheering and singing. Don’t be surprised to see the stock markets pop tomorrow.

I’m glad it isn’t October, 2012. (I’m sure there were those who were tempted to wait. Credit to them for not doing so.)

It’s late, and I haven’t combed the Internet yet to find out what I can about this, but I am very curious about Pakistan’s role here. Given the enormous compound Osama was living in, the ISI had to know where he was. Did they sell him out? That will be hard to keep secret, and when it gets out it will get hot in the streets over there. Did they not sell him out? Were they hiding him from us? That will get interesting too.

Now Osama is a martyr. Will that fan the flames of jihad? Have we poked a stick in the hornets’ nest?

I don’t think so: my feeling is that there’s little that could fan those flames any higher; at this point they’re pretty much self-fanning anyway. On the other hand, this could be a bracing tonic for the West, for a little while at least.

Should be an interesting few days.

Sans Souci

The lovely Nina and I are unwinding by the sea this weekend, and so soothing to the inflamed spirit are the fragrant littoral breezes, so dulcifying the clear spring sunshine, that it’s going to be hard for me to work up any of the partisan tirades and effusions of bitter gall that usually grace these pages, and that keep our loyal readers coming back for more.

Fortunately, readers B.H. and O.E.M. have sent along some items of interest: here, here and here.

Oh, and here’s a piquant item, courtesy of Lawrence Auster.

Got Yer Back

In the latest New Yorker there’s an article by Ryan Lizza called “Leading from Behind”, which presents the President’s recent foreign-policy tactics as a way to do things without exposing ourselves to charges of unilateralist swagger. In a recent blog entry, Lizza explains:

…at the heart of the idea of leading from behind is the empowerment of other actors to do your bidding or, as in the case of Libya, to be used as cover for a policy that would be suspect in the eyes of other nations if it’s branded as a purely American operation.

Well, Charles Krauthammer’s having none of it. Like it or not — and that’s really what’s at issue here — we are still the world’s dominant economic and military superpower. If that makes us unpopular in some circles — as it inevitably will, no matter how much “cover” we seek — so be it. Multilateral fig leaves aren’t fooling anyone, anyway, and if you worry more about pleasing everyone than being effective, you’ll get neither.

Krauthammer sums up (my emphasis):

We must lead from behind because we are reviled. Pray tell, when were we not? During Vietnam? Or earlier, under Eisenhower? When his vice president was sent on a good-will trip to Latin America, he was spat upon and so threatened by the crowds that he had to cut short his trip. Or maybe later, under the blessed Reagan? The Reagan years were marked by vast demonstrations in the capitals of our closest allies denouncing America as a warmongering menace taking the world into nuclear winter.

“Obama came of age politically,’ explains Lizza, “during the post”“Cold War era, a time when America’s unmatched power created widespread resentment.’ But the world did not begin with the coming to consciousness of Barack Obama. Cold War resentments ran just as deep.

It is the fate of any assertive superpower to be envied, denounced, and blamed for everything under the sun. Nothing has changed. Moreover, for a country so deeply reviled, why during the massive unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, and Syria have anti-American demonstrations been such a rarity?

Who truly reviles America the hegemon? The world that Obama lived in and that shaped him intellectually: the elite universities; his Hyde Park milieu (including his not-to-be-mentioned friends, William Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn); the church he attended for two decades, ringing with sermons more virulently anti-American than anything heard in today’s full-throated uprising of the Arab Street.

It is the liberal elites who revile the American colossus and devoutly wish to see it cut down to size. Leading from behind ”” diminishing America’s global standing and assertiveness ”” is a reaction to their view of America, not the world’s.

Other presidents take anti-Americanism as a given, rather than evidence of American malignancy, believing ”” as do most Americans ”” in the rightness of our cause and the nobility of our intentions. Obama thinks anti-Americanism is a verdict on America’s fitness for leadership.

I don’t always agree with Dr. Krauthammer — his views on foreign policy lean more toward the neoconservative than mine do these days — but this is exactly right. What he describes is just what I hear from my liberal friends in academia, in the music biz, in my ultra-blue haunts of Park Slope and Wellfleet. It is a Zinn/Chomsky foreign policy; a policy of atonement.

Read Krauthammer’s essay here.

Golden Mean

If you look at any vigorous society in its prime, you see a healthy balance between rights and privileges. When either grows too much at the expense of the other, a nation declines: on the one hand toward impotent mediocrity, on the other into tyranny.

Story of O.

Not swooning over the One the way you used to? Do his declamatory cadences no longer give you that old thrill up your leg? Is the bloom off the rose? Is the honeymoon over? Are you bored with the hat, and looking for some cattle? Wish you’d ordered steak instead of sizzle?

Andrew Malcolm understands.

Now, Voyager

Here’s a happy item:

More than 30 years after they left Earth, NASA’s twin Voyager probes are now at the edge of the solar system. Not only that, they’re still working. And with each passing day they are beaming back a message that, to scientists, is both unsettling and thrilling.

The message is, “Expect the unexpected.”

“It’s uncanny,” says Ed Stone of Caltech, Voyager Project Scientist since 1972. “Voyager 1 and 2 have a knack for making discoveries.”
Today, April 28, 2011, NASA held a live briefing to reflect on what the Voyager mission has accomplished–and to preview what lies ahead as the probes prepare to enter the realm of the Milky Way itself.

My favorite thing about the Voyager probes is the golden phonograph records they carry.

More here.

Elemental Fury

Here’s a harrowing video clip of today’s tornado in Alabama. The terror of the person filming it is palpable, and contagious.

Partnering Up

In the wake of the latest massacre of US personnel by our Muslim “allies”, here is a response from Diana West.

We’ve lost our minds, and as a result the best among us are losing their lives.

Phoebe Snow, 1950-2011

We note with sadness the death of singer Phoebe Snow, whom those of us of a “certain age” will best remember for her beautiful 1974 song Poetry Man.

I did not know Ms. Snow well, but I did know her slightly, having done a few recording sessions with her back in the 1990s. She was an amiable person, with a ready and somewhat mordant wit, and in the studio she was a top-notch professional. It always seemed to me that her playful banter concealed some darkness within; it was not until much later that I learned that much of her life was consumed by caring for her profoundly disabled daughter, who died in 2007.

What a voice she had! I’m sorry to hear she’s gone.

You can read her obituary here.

If We Only Had The Nerve

In totalitarian states, you keep your private sentiments and beliefs about the world’s realities to yourself; the penalty is harsh for expressing opinions that conflict with the official line. Example:

Khruschev was busy denouncing Stalin at a public meeting when a voice shouted out “If you feel this way now, why didn’t you say so then?” To which the Soviet leader thundered “Who said that?” There was a long and petrified silence which Kruschev finally broke. “Now you know why.”

Are things really so different here and now? In an essay at NRO titled The American Soviet, Victor Davis Hanson argues that they are not.

I’m sympathetic to Dr. Hanson’s point: these days there are certainly many things that we all know to be true, but mustn’t say in public. But in making the comparison that he does Hanson overstates, and weakens, his case.

The crucial difference is this: had Dr. Hanson made the same points in the old Soviet Union, he’d have been hauled off to Lubyanka. But unlike Soviet Russia (or even Europe and Canada, where a dark night is swiftly descending upon the right to express “offensive” thoughts), the tyranny that binds and gags us here in America is still self-imposed. Though it has certainly taken hold of a great many of our public and private institutions (just ask Lawrence Summers or James Watson or E.O. Wilson), we need only look at places like Syria or North Korea — or even Holland, England, and Denmark! — to realize how free we still are in America, where it’s far more difficult for our P.C. taboos to take on the force of law. We can still cast off our chains any time we make up our minds to do so.

Meanwhile, though, it isn’t as if our pathological inclination to deny awkward facts doesn’t have serious consequences: for more on that, see today’s post at Mangan’s.

Field Of Dreams

For colleges, men’s sports are often hugely profitable, while women’s sports nearly always aren’t. This caused many schools not to support women’s sports at nearly the same level as men’s. Add to that the fact that far fewer young women than men are even interested in joining college sports teams — due, no doubt, to pernicious masculine oppression — and what do you get?

Inequality.

Just as nature abhors a vacuum, the State abhors inequality. So a few years back, into the breach it leapt — with all the sagacity, foresight, and subtlety of method we’ve come to expect. This has now produced the usual cornucopia of unintended, if not entirely unpredictable, consequences. Story here.

Both Sides Now

Are deeds objective? If an agent performs some action X, then X influences the world’s causal network in some particular way, with particular consequences. Does it make sense to say that for the same X, X is good if performed by “good” agent Smith, and X is bad if performed by “bad” agent Jones?

Why do I ask? I’ll let Andrew Stiles explain.

Collectivism

It’s another busy spell for me; I haven’t had much time to comment on the passing scene since putting up that brief eugenics post last week, and I’ve had no time for writing today.

But don’t touch that dial! I have something I’m sure you’ll enjoy: Ants As Fluids.

Ahem…

My birthday’s just gone by, on April 13th — but in case you’re wondering what to get me next year…

The Jubjub Hole

Here.

Over To You, Steve

A story that’s been making the rounds the past few days (thanks to the indefatigable JK for sending along this version of it) has to do with recent research that casts doubt on a cornerstone of contemporary thought about human language: namely that we all are born with a “language module” that constrains possible grammars to a few basic systems.

This idea has become more or less hegemonic amongst linguists due to the work of Noam Chomsky (and subsequent proponents such as Steven Pinker), and has also been taken as a model for work on the evolutionary psychology of morality by people like Marc Hauser. If it’s wrong, that’s a pretty big deal; it will be interesting to see how the research community responds.

Learn more here.

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

A hot topic at the moment is taxpayer funding for Planned Parenthood. Social and fiscal conservatives have allied themselves against it — the former because they think abortion is murder, the latter because they don’t think what Planned Parenthood does is among the government’s enumerated functions, and it costs money. Liberals support it, for all the obvious reasons.

But is Planned Parenthood actually a net drain on the public fisc? In Thursday’s Times, Gail Collins persuasively argues just the opposite. In doing so she hearkens back to old-time, pre-war Progressivism, and to one of the central principles upon which Planned Parenthood itself was founded: that because the poorest and least educated (and least educable) people tend to have the most children, and because a persistent underclass is expensive to maintain in a thousand different ways, then the lower their birthrate, the better the public balance-sheet. Therefore, in Ms. Collins’ words, “destroying Planned Parenthood is a money-loser”.

Ms. Collins didn’t put it all quite this way, but that’s the idea — and it’s how Planned Parenthood’s founder, Margaret Sanger (along with most other Progressives of the era) saw it, too. In Sanger’s 1922 book The Pivot of Civilization, she wrote: “More children from the fit, less from the unfit: that is the issue of birth control.”

I don’t always agree with Gail Collins, but she may be right about this one. Fiscal conservatives, take note.

A Brawlie Bairn

OK, enough politics. Time for a little Kumbaya, and maybe a reason to go on living.

Here’s a young Scotsman by the name of Brendan MacFarlane. And here, and here.

Birth Pangs

I haven’t written much about this — I hate to get involved in this sort of thing, and prefer to focus on matters of genuine significance — but I must come out and say that it’s downright weird that the great big noisy fuss about the circumstances of President Obama’s birth hasn’t gone away. It must be a terrible, nagging annoyance for Mr. Obama, and there is simply no good explanation for why he hasn’t simply put the matter to rest, because it ought to be trivially easy to do. To see a fop like Donald Trump swaggering about making political hay with it must be unspeakably irritating.

Anticipating objections, let me reduce the question to a few essential points.

There are those who say: “The President has released an official document from the state of Hawaii. Case closed.”

Well, not quite. The document that has been made public is something called a ‘Certification of Live Birth’. This form, often referred to as a COLB, is a secondary, post-hoc document usually issued when, for example, a person’s original birth certificate is in a foreign language. It refers to, and derives its authority from, the underlying primary document, which in Hawaii would have had been called by a confusingly similar name: a long-form ‘Certificate of Live Birth’, or more commonly, a ‘birth certificate’. This is the official record made at the time of birth, with detailed information including the attending physician’s name, and so forth.

Did whoever issued the COLB have the actual birth certificate to refer to? If so, then why not just release that? It’s a mere triviality, presumably, and yet Mr. Obama doesn’t do it. Why on Earth not? You or I, or anybody else, would get it out there in a heartbeat; it would immediately put an end to all of this nonsense, just like that. It makes no sense not to do so.

Did the issuing party not have the original in hand? Then on what authority was the COLB issued? (There are also various other questions about its authenticity.)

There are contemporaneous newspaper announcements, which indeed add circumstantial support. But if, as others have suggested, there may be other complexities to the details of Mr. Obama’s arrival, the announcements may have been placed, by a family in awkward circumstances, in order to obscure questions of timing or legitimacy. They certainly are not legal documents; anyone can place an ad.

Again — all of this is terribly tiresome, and I have — seriously! — no agenda here. While I would of course love to see him gone, I will remind all of you that getting the sitting President tossed out on some technicality would put Joe Biden in the Oval Office. So I want to be clear: as far as I’m concerned, this birther stuff is just a bizarre distraction. My preference is that we rebut and refute Mr. Obama’s destructive ideology in public discourse, confound his grand schemes within the normal political channels, and work toward that happy day in 2012 when we will see the man put out of office in a fair election.

But it sure is odd. Why the heck doesn’t the President just pony up the real birth certificate, and at a single stroke put an end to all this tomfoolery? Until he does, this distraction — which is increasingly a political liability — will never go away. I just don’t understand it. Do you?

Up, Up And Away

I’ve been busy, so for tonight, with the budget debate on everybody’s mind, just a brief item: a post by statistician William Briggs that has as its central feature a starkly simple graph, devoid of any ideological content. It merely plots the amount spent by the US government per capita, year by year, in inflation-adjusted dollars.

A log scale is needed on the money axis, because the rise is so steep: the amount has doubled — doubled! — in a single generation. It has risen a hundredfold in the last century. Make of that what you will.

Here.

(Hat tip: John D.)

Roger Nichols, 1944-2011

We note with sorrow the death, at 66, of the great recording engineer Roger Nichols — best known for the immaculate recordings and mixes he made with Steely Dan. His artistic brilliance and superb technical craftsmanship were an inspiration to me and to countless other engineers.

His New York Times obituary is here.

OK, Fine With Me

As I write, the Dow is collapsing; it’s down 237 points, and heading south. The reason? Standard and Poor’s has downgraded its long-term outlook for the US to “negative”. The reason for that? Simply put, we’ve utterly failed to demonstrate that we are serious about controlling our exploding public debt.

We’ve been hurtling toward a very tall cliff for a long time now; we may finally be going over it. If today isn’t the day, rest assured that it’s coming soon.

Meanwhile: remember the Gabrielle Giffords shooting? Remember the reeking cloud of opprobrium emitted by prominent figures on the Left, and their despicable attempt to blame a psychotic loner’s murderous rampage on the Right’s lack of “civility”? Remember their pious calls for a new era of politeness in public discourse, lest there be more “victims” of the Right’s “inflammatory” dissent?

Well, in today’s Times out slithers the worst of the lot, Paul Krugman — the arch-Keynesian liberal polemicist for whom the only problem with US deficits is that they aren’t vast enough — with a column entitled “Let’s Not Be Civil”.

By his own logic, this is nothing less than an incitement to political violence. But very well, then, Mr. Krugman, have it your way: if you would like for us all not to be civil any longer, I’m sure that can be arranged.

Doyle Dykes

Who’s Doyle Dykes? Just one of the best finger-pickers alive. If you’ve never heard him play, you’re in for a treat.

Here’s his version of that country classic, Wabash Cannonball.

Celebrity Deathmatch

This might be worth watching (I can’t say for sure, because I haven’t watched it myself yet): a debate between Sam Harris and William Lane Craig.

Those Darn Elections!

The conservative blogosphere is abuzz over Nancy Pelosi’s revealing remark that “Elections shouldn’t matter as much as they do.”

A sample here, from Steven Hayward at Powerline.

Chicken or Egg?

In a timely follow-up to our previous post, here’s an article from Science Daily:

Cultural Differences Are Evident Deep in the Brain of Caucasian and Asian People

The lead paragraph:

People in different cultures make different assumptions about the people around them, according to an upcoming study published in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science. The researchers studied the brain waves of people with Caucasian and Asian backgrounds and found that cultural differences in how we think about other people are embedded deep in our minds. Cultural differences are evident very deep in the brain, challenging a commonsense notion that culture is skin deep.

The assumption made by the researchers here is that the biology of the human brain, and therefore important aspects of the way it functions, are altered and conditioned by culture — as summed up in the closing paragraph:

“We often feel that culture is like clothes; you strip them off, and we are all humans,” [researcher Shinobu] Kitayama says. “There’s some truth to that, but studies like this begin to demonstrate that culture can go much deeper. What appears to be a natural being, or a human mind, may be culturally shaped or formed.”

Note the presumptive directionality here: culture determines biology. But where do cultural differences come from in the first place? They aren’t drawn from a deck of cards, and they don’t fall from the sky.

Far more likely, in my opinion: the same selection pressures that account for the radiations of biologically varying human groups are at the root of variations in culture. But it’s a two-way street: the memetic environment of culture itself can have a profound effect on differential reproduction, which means that once the ball gets rolling, culture and biology start feeding back into each other (for example, it seems likely to me that the selection pressure on Ashkenazi Jews for various cognitive skills, due to cultural restrictions over many centuries, is what resulted in that population’s having the highest average IQ of any human group).

So: chicken or egg? It’s more like chicken egg foo yung.

The Moral IS the Story

In the (rambling) discussion thread to Sunday’s post, commenter Dom gave us a quote from Niall Ferguson’s book Civilization: The West and the Rest:

He quotes a scholar from the Chinese Academy of the Social Sciences “We were asked to look into what accounted for ”¦ the success, in fact, the pre-eminence of the West all over the world. We studied everything we could from the historical, political, economic, and cultural perspective. At first we thought it was because you had more powerful guns than we had. Then we thought it was because you had the best political system. Next we focused on your economic system. But in the past 20 years we have realised that the heart of your culture is your religion. Christianity.’

Over at Mangan’s, our friend Dennis has taken up this passage in an interesting post of his own, The Curiosity Deficit of the East. I left the following comment:

When I read this I wondered if the Chinese scholar himself had said any more about why this should be so: about what, exactly it was about Christianity that they thought best explained. As it turns out, the next line of the quoted passage reads (my emphasis):

“The Christian moral foundation of social and cultural life was what made possible the emergence of capitalism and then the successful transition to democratic politics. We don’t have any doubt about this.”

It is very interesting that a representative of a state-sponsored academic institution of the Communist and officially atheistic People’s Republic of China would come to this conclusion, and even more interesting that he would be permitted to express it publicly.

I’d still like to know more. In what way, specifically — by what mechanism — did these scholars think that Christian morality accounted for the West’s flamboyant (and flamboyantly capitalistic!) success?

There are two parts to this. First, the “emergence of capitalism”. What about Christian morality uniquely fosters capitalism?

Then there’s the “transition to democratic politics”. Implicit in this is the remarkable assertion (for a Chinese scholar to make in public, at least) that democracy is a key factor in our global domination. And of course Christianity explicitly distinguishes between God and Caesar. But again: why do you suppose the Chinese Academy of the Social Science concluded that Christian morality is more conducive to democracy than to collective socialism?

Any thoughts?

Links

From today’s Physorg newsletter:

So much for drowning your sorrows
Alcohol helps the brain remember, says new study

They’re still kind of short and skinny
First galaxies were born much earlier than expected

This is news?
Europe may be slowly disappearing under Africa

Enough with the fracking leaks!
Fracking leaks may make gas ‘dirtier’ than coal

Like I told you, Duncan: inhale twice, exhale once
Scots carbon emissions could be halved in decades, study suggests

Some Thoughts On Liberty

I yammer on a lot about liberty in these pages, and sound the alarm when I think it is threatened. For all of that, though, I’m not an extreme libertarian; limitations on liberty are necessary for a well-functioning society. I just don’t like to see it limited beyond necessity, and I don’t like policies whose unintended consequences include creating conditions that necessitate further limitations.

So what constitutes a meaningful limitation of liberty?

Imagine the following curious scenario. You live in a world with a strict system of laws: everything that is not explicitly permitted is forbidden. (Don’t worry about how the laws are enforced; let’s say there is some automated monitoring system in place that operates with 100% effectiveness, and the punishment is swift and harsh.) Imagine further that you are the only inhabitant of this world.

Now let’s add a further curious stipulation: everything that you choose to do during the course of your life is on the list of permitted acts. (Since this is just a thought experiment, lets say that our law-enforcement bot is able to look back in time, and program a list of everything you will choose to do during your life into its list of what isn’t forbidden.)

A strange situation! It will seem to you as if there are no restrictions whatsoever on your liberty. But that’s hardly the case: the list of forbidden acts is in fact infinitely larger than the list of what’s allowed: it’s just that you’ll never notice. The list of what you can do is so tightly shrink-wrapped around what you will ever want to do that there’s no apparent problem.

Now let’s say we add a second individual, a perfect clone of you. Do the laws have to change? Well, yes, they do, a little: while almost all of the individual acts you’ll chose will be the same, in the interest of harmony and justice there will be some acts that will have to be forbidden, namely those acts that impinge unfairly on the other person. Spinning around firing a machine gun in all directions, or eating all of the other person’s food, for example, might need to go onto the “forbidden” list. But beyond accommodations of that sort, the laws won’t have to change that much, because, being perfect clones, you both will be inclined to toward pretty much exactly the same actions. So even though the list of forbidden acts is infinitely larger than the list of what’s permitted, you’ll both still have a sense of enjoying almost perfect liberty.

OK: so far we can describe the legal system of our little world according to the following meta-rules:

1) Acts that impinge on others in harmful or unwelcome ways are forbidden.

2) All voluntary acts that happen to be chosen by any individual during his or her lifetime are explicitly permitted, except where proscribed by 1).

3) Every act that is not voluntarily chosen by someone is forbidden for all.

What we see then, is that 3) is starting to lose whatever relevance it ever had. Even though 3) puts on the list an infinitely large collection of forbidden acts, and therefore in principle constitutes a gigantic limitation of liberty, it is not a meaningful limitation, because we never notice it. What limits liberty in a way we will actually feel is 1).

So: what factors might increase the effect of 1)? Well, if we imagine our little world to be populated with clones of ourselves, odds are that since we’ll be doing almost exactly the same sorts of things, the effect will tend to be muted. But increasing the number of copies of ourselves will surely have an effect; there will be more of us going after finite resources, etc., and so some new laws will have to be added to the blacklist to keep things running smoothly (you can’t take more than a certain share of a resource, etc.).

Here’s another way to increase the limiting effect of 1): instead of populating our little world with clones of ourself, we use near-duplicates. Now, because the list of acts we’ll voluntarily choose is going to start to diverge, the ways your acts can “impinge on me in harmful or unwelcome ways” is going to increase. For example, in a world of clones we’ll all want to be awake at the same time, and sleep at the same time; but now you might like to sleep during the day and play the drums on your porch all night while I’m trying to get some rest. Meanwhile I might like to render animal bones into glue in my spare time, while you don’t like the smell. So we’ll need some new additions to the forbidden list. Because these are voluntary acts that would have been permitted in our original setup, I’m going to feel the difference. These are meaningful limitations of liberty. But most of the time we’ll still keep out of each other’s way, because as near-duplicates we are going to engage in pretty much the same behaviors. I like to have parties on Friday night, but so do you. I like to sit on the beach in the nude, but so do you. And so on. So all of this is permitted, and our liberty is only minimally affected.

It’s important to pause here to remember also that under 3), there are uncountable numbers of things that are NOT permitted, simply because they are not things that any of us would choose to do. But as we mentioned above: 3), though it makes by far the biggest contribution to the forbidden list and therefore is the biggest actual limitation of our liberty, makes no meaningful limitations, because it doesn’t prevent us from doing anything we’d ever want to do anyway. It is negligible. In our world of clones or near-clones, although our list of permitted actions is actually very tightly constrained by law under the effect of 3), we don’t notice, and so don’t care.

The point of all this? The only restrictions of liberty that affect us in any practical sense are restrictions of the liberty to do those things that we would ever want to do anyway. Because in the real world we don’t have the time-traveling omniscience of the law-bot in our toy world, we don’t know in advance the full list of what the members of our society might want to do, so we try to make more general rules that we think will suffice to grant us all the liberties we need. And course, our thought-experiment world includes that strange proviso 3), where everything that nobody would ever want to do is prohibited. But as we have seen, 3) has no meaningful effect; the real action comes from 1) and 2). Take away 3), and what you have left is a society that, because it seeks to prohibit only that “which impinges on others in harmful or unwelcome ways”, would probably flatter itself as being quite “free”.

Now let’s go a little further: instead of near-duplicates of ourself, we populate our kleine Welt with total strangers who are as unlike us as they could possibly be, in all the ways you can imagine: political views, social customs and rituals, diet, living arrangements, religion, and so on. This is going to dramatically increase the effect of 1); a great many things that were previously permitted will no longer be. We should note that it is also the case that more will be permitted under 2), because there will be a greater variety of voluntary choices being made — but those new additions to the permitted-actions list brought about by those who are maximally unlike us won’t have much of an effect on increasing our liberty in a meaningful way, because most of them will not be actions that we ever would have chosen in the first place, or will choose even if they become available to us.

From all this, then, we can conclude that in our little thought-experiment world, liberty — meaningful liberty, the kind that actually affects people’s lives — is maximal for a single individual, reduced a little for a small group of exactly similar individuals, reduced somewhat more for a small group of highly similar individuals, reduced further for larger groups of highly similar individuals, and reduced more and more as the heterogeneity — the diversity — of the population increases.

What about the real world?

Under New Management

The taxonomy of contemporary conservatism isn’t simple; it’s more of a bush than a tree. Nevertheless, we can point to at least one major bifurcation — at the level of phyla, one could say — and that is the split between secular and Christian conservatism.

Christian conservatives, such as Pat Buchanan or Lawrence Auster, see Christianity as the bones and sinews of Euro-American civilization — the essential structural framework that has shaped and supported it throughout its history. To them the secularizing trend in the modern West, and with it the loss of the moral compass and social fascia that religion provides, is the key to understanding our culture’s decline.

On the other hand, Western Christianity has also arguably become, by its radical inclusiveness and universalism, an important force for the deracination and ethno-cultural deliquescence of Europe and The United States. (This is, of course, a hot topic on the religious Right.)

The West has not only been defined by Christianity, though; for most of Christian history it has also imagined itself to define it. This, however, has been changing, and Christendom’s center of gravity has been moving south: most significantly, to Africa and Latin America. As it has adapted to these places, it has changed a great deal, and has taken on many alien characteristics of local traditions: ancestor and idol worship, pantheism, and ethnic determinism of a sort that puts it, in many cases, in direct opposition to Western interests, and in particular those interests championed by Western conservatives. Christianity in its European form may soon be quite irrelevant.

At Alternative Right, Matthew Roberts discusses all of this in a substantial essay. Here.

Right Brain, Left Brain

Here’s the latest stab at a neurological explanation of political attitudes: a study that associates conservatism with larger amygdalas, and liberalism with larger anterior cingulate gyruses.

We read:

Based on what is known about the functions of those two brain regions, the structural differences are consistent with reports showing a greater ability of liberals to cope with conflicting information and a greater ability of conservatives to recognize a threat, the researchers say.

…There had also been many prior psychological reports showing that conservatives are more sensitive to threat or anxiety in the face of uncertainty, while liberals tend to be more open to new experiences.

Of course reports like this must generally be consumed cum grano salis, but perhaps there’s something to it: conservatives, wary to keep civilization safely on the rails, are more likely to notice when policymakers set a course that is likely to lead to a train-wreck — while liberals, their heads blithely filled with “conflicting information” and hungry for “new experiences”, like nothing better than to yank the throttle open and start shoveling coal.

Story here.

If Oumama Ain’t Happy, Ain’t Nobody Happy

Muammar Qaddafi has sent a letter to President Obama. Here it is:

Our son, Excellency,

President Obama

U.S.A

We have been hurt more morally that physically because of what had happened against us in both deeds and words by you. Despite all this you will always remain our son whatever happened. We still pray that you continue to be president of the U.S.A. We Endeavour and hope that you will gain victory in the new election campaigne. You are a man who has enough courage to annul a wrong and mistaken action. I am sure that you are able to shoulder the responsibility for that. Enough evidence is available, Bearing in mind that you are the president of the strongest power in the world nowadays, and since Nato is waging an unjust war against a small people of a developing country. This country had already been subjected to embargo and sanctions, furthermore it also suffered a direct military armed aggression during Reagan’s time. This country is Libya. Hence, to serving world peace … Friendship between our peoples … and for the sake of economic, and security cooperation against terror, you are in a position to keep Nato off the Libyan affair for good.

As you know too well democracy and building of civil society cannot be achieved by means of missiles and aircraft, or by backing armed member of AlQuaeda in Benghazi.

You ”” yourself ”” said on many occasions, one of them in the UN General Assembly, I was witness to that personally, that America is not responsible for the security of other peoples. That America helps only. This is the right logic.

Our dear son, Excellency, Baraka Hussein Abu oumama, your intervention is the name of the U.S.A. is a must, so that Nato would withdraw finally from the Libyan affair. Libya should be left to Libyans within the African union frame. The problem now stands as follows:-

1. There is Nato intervention politically as well as military.

2. Terror conducted by AlQaueda gangs that have been armed in some cities, and by force refused to allow people to go back to their normal life, and carry on with exercising their social people’s power as usual.

Mu’aumer Qaddaffi

Leader of the Revolution

Tripoli 5.4.2011

All Quiet On the Northern Front

If you’re looking for a tranquil place to live, the Institute For Economics and Peace has published a table of the most and least peaceful U.S. states.

The top 10 are: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Minnesota, North Dakota, Utah, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Iowa, Washington.

The bottom 10 are: Maryland, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Nevada, Tennessee, and Louisiana.

Full list here.

It’s On!

If you haven’t seen it yet (and by now you probably have): a spirited — to say the least! — response to Congressional archdhimmi Lindsey Graham, from a Colorado pepperpot by the name of Ann Barnhardt.

Move over, Pat Condell! There’s a new kid in town.

Watch it now, before it’s taken down.

Wall Tweet

Today’s Science Daily newsletter featured a story about a new website that mines Twitter postings to make stock-market predictions. Given that stock prices are themselves largely dependent on the sentiment of the crowd, there might be something to it.

Read the article here, or visit the site itself: TweetTrader.net.

Are We Not Men?

Andrew McCarthy, who has been on a tear lately, posted a very strong article today about the sniveling response by General David Petraeus and NATO ambassador Sedwill to the massacre of UN staff by a raging mob in Afghanistan. Read it here. And then read it again. What a nation of spineless, cringing quake-buttocks we have become.

Lawrence Auster weighs in also, here.

Update: the Auster post has been taken down, as explained here.

The Bubble

The other day I paid a visit to Google’s vast New York office complex to have lunch with my friend Greg, a former co-worker who took a job there about a year ago.

As you’d imagine, it’s not your ordinary workplace. Everywhere you look, there are comforts, amusements, and diversions: toys, jungle rooms, sleeping pods, whiskey bars, fitness equipment, lavishly stocked little kitchens, a full-surround Google Earth viewing booth, fabulous sculptures made of Legos and K’Nex, “jam rooms” equipped with musical instruments, and so on. Workers come and go as they please, and are fed gratis at any of several outstanding cafeterias. Dress is completely informal, and everybody gets one day each week to work on whatever they like. There’s hardly any supervision or hierarchy — people just sort of understand what’s needed, and know their job is to make it happen in the cleverest way they can.

Everyone I met assumed I was there for an interview, and couldn’t help telling me what a fantastic place it was to work.

It being a mild day, Greg and I dined al fresco on a high terrace with a sweeping view of Midtown. (I had a delightful osso buco, he some freshly made sushi.) We talked about what his new life was like. Yes, he said, the physical perks were nice, but what really made the place so extraordinary was “the culture”.

His use of that word crystallized for me the effect the place had had on me from the moment I walked in. To get there, I had taken the subway from Grand Central down to 14th Street and 8th Avenue (two subways, actually), and the experience was as it is always is: crowded, blaring, gritty, and above all maximally heterogeneous in every way imaginable. It’s “vibrant”, if you like, and after living here in Gotham for more than thirty years I’m certainly well accustomed to it — but the effect of such a volatile and discordant public environment is to produce in everyone a subliminal wary tension, so constant and so routine that after a while one hardly notices it until it’s gone.

Well, when you walk into Google, it’s gone. Coming into that place, through the high-tech security checkpoint, from the teeming city outside is like passing through an airlock; it’s like beaming back up to the Enterprise from the steamy planetary surface. You can’t help being aware that you are suddenly in what feels like a different country. It’s culture shock.

Just how, exactly, is it so different? Well, it’s not the the creature comforts: for all its toys and free lunches, the place has nothing on a good hotel. It’s the people. Unlike any government or academic institution, Google is a pure meritocracy. Its employees have jumped a series of very high bars to get in the door, and as a result this building houses one of the most elite concentrations of high IQ in the world. En masse, it’s palpable. You can’t help but notice.

Greg said that he sometimes feels, working at Google, that he’s living in a “bubble” — and sitting on that terrace with all those bright people, looking out over New York City and enjoying my osso buco, I had to agree that he’s right. I realized that what Google has done is to create a one-way membrane, a kind of Maxwell’s Demon: as the world decays and degenerates outside, falling further into chaos, the entropy inside the Google membrane decreases, as self-organizing complexity emerges. That’s what Greg’s “bubble” is, and that’s what makes the “culture” possible: an extreme statistical outlier at the end of a long series of centrifuges.

Another friend (and another very smart guy) who now works at Google is my old boss from PubSub, Bob Wyman. I chatted briefly with him, too, while I was visiting. Bob has an interesting paradigm for thinking about the world. The way he sees it, good and evil are basically just a matter of thermodynamics. In a nutshell, good consists of reducing entropy, and evil consists of abetting it.

Google’s motto: Don’t be evil.

I hear they’re hiring…

Mission: Incomprehensible

Our surreal war in Libya has everybody talking. Here’s Mark Steyn:

According to the New York Times, “Members of the NATO alliance have sternly warned the rebels in Libya not to attack civilians as they push against the regime of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.’ We dropped bombs on Qaddafi’s crowd for attacking civilians, and we’re prepared to do the same to you! “The coalition has told the rebels that the fog of war will not shield them from possible bombardment by NATO planes and missiles, just as the regime’s forces have been punished.’

So, having agreed to be the Libyan Liberation Movement Air Force, we’re also happy to serve as the Qaddafi Last-Stand Air Force. Say what you like about Barack Obama, but it’s rare to find a leader so impeccably multilateralist he’s willing to participate in both sides of a war. It doesn’t exactly do much for holding it under budget, but it does ensure that for once we’ve got a sporting chance of coming out on the winning side.

RTWT here.