Bottoms Up!

For tonight, an interesting item from the frontier of advancing technology.

One of the the most promising innovations we discussed and saw demonstrated at Singularity University back in April was 3-D printing, in which a movable printer head builds up solid objects by depositing one very thin layer at a time. The extraordinary thing about 3-D printing is that complexity adds no premium: it is no more difficult to replicate, say, the head of a rose than a coffee mug.

The state of the art is advancing very rapidly indeed, as the resolution and precision with which layers can be deposited improves, and as the range of available material widens — and as this technology moves into the nanoscale it will become possible to custom-build objects at the molecular or even atomic level. At the SU presentation it was suggested that soon we will be able to print food, or even human organs. It was also pointed out that we would be able to use 3-D printers to print 3-D printers!

What all this means is that the enormous premium added to manufactured goods by the cost of assembling and constructing them from raw materials will tend toward zero. So, in many cases, will shipping costs, depending on the local availability of raw materials. Imagine, for example: we drop a mid-21st-century printer into a remote location. First we use it to create copies of itself, then make the swarm of copies available for local manufacturing of necessary goods: clothes, tools, furniture, screws, pipes, medical apparatus, you name it.

As I said, this technology is advancing very rapidly indeed. How rapidly? Have a look here.

What A Life!

Here.

Nice Work If You Can Get It (And You Can Get It If You Try)

There’s an ad on my local news-radio station that’s been playing for years. It’s for one of those personal-injury law-firms. Now I have nothing against such firms, and they surely serve a just and necessary purpose in bringing succor to those wrongfully harmed. But there’s one line in this commercial that jumps out at me every time I hear it:

“Just because you’re a victim doesn’t mean you have to suffer!”

It occurred to me that this, in a nutshell, sums up the ideal status in the contemporary liberal West: a new, post-modern victim-hood, which confers upon the bearer both emancipation from responsibility for one’s circumstances and entitlement to compensation — yet without the burden of actual suffering, which of course has until now been the very essence of victimhood, and what made us pity victims in the first place.

Missed It By That Much

Here’s more on the ACA ruling, from Daniel Foster at NRO.

From Kennedy’s dissent, joined by Scalia, Alito, and Thomas (but not Roberts!):

“In our view, the entire Act before us is invalid in its entirety.’

If At First…

The blogger Poor Richard makes an interesting point about the Obamacare ruling, here.

Oh Well

Well, SCOTUS made its big ruling today, and the key point of contention — the individual mandate — was upheld. I haven’t read the opinions yet, but it seems the IM was ruled not to be permissible under the Commerce Clause, which was what pretty much everyone thought the decision would hinge on, but was declared nevertheless to be constitutional under Congress’s power to tax, presumably under the General Welfare Clause.

I suppose come conservatives will look for positive spin in the Court’s limitations of the Commerce Clause, but there isn’t much to be happy about there. Congress may not be able to force you to buy broccoli on Commerce Clause grounds, but it now seems it can single you out for a $50,000 tax if you don’t. Any hopes that any of us may have had about this still being a limited government of carefully enumerated powers can now be abandoned.

So, it’s a happy day in the White House (tempered, perhaps, by the fact that the President repeatedly insisted that the individual mandate was NOT a tax, and in weeks and months to come tempered perhaps by the effect of this news on the economy).

If you thought this election campaign was already bitter and highly polarized, you ain’t seen nothing yet. But I suppose this decision would have had that effect no matter which way it had gone.

More, perhaps, later, after I’ve had a chance to read the opinions.

Death Of A Nation

We can’t seem to do anything at all any more. Here are two posts about that: one from Walter Russell Mead, the other from Dennis Mangan.

Democracy works well enough for a while, I suppose, while a nation is young and virile enough to value opportunity over security, and while its people can muster up enough self-confidence, social cohesion and unity of purpose to agree upon national goals, and to make a serious effort to achieve them.

We are not such a nation any more — lean, athletic, vigorous and hungry. No, we are now in late middle age: weary, obese, weakened by cultural self-doubt and existential guilt, too fond of comfort, too wary of risk, exhausted by corrosive metabolic disease and the collapse of our immune system, sapped by parasites, and all but immobilized by all the clutter we’ve created and accumulated. We can hardly get off the couch even to look after our own most basic needs, and resent the idea that we should have to. We can hardly bear to look in the mirror.

What are the exceptions? They are to be found in small, agile, self-organizing entities that are lightweight enough, and focused enough, and cohesive enough, and intelligent enough, to move, to act, to create, to do. They must be nimble enough to live in the shadows of tottering behemoths without being trampled, or eaten — but the great, slow beasts are dying now; their time is nearly over.

When I visited Singularity University in April, one of the speakers (I think it was Paul Saffo) said that he thought that modern nation-states were becoming obsolete, and wouldn’t be around much longer. I can’t recall if he mentioned that this is particularly true of democracies, but to me it seems it must be. Will there still be a United States of America, as presently constituted, thirty years from now? How? Why?

Then And Now At NEJM

Here’s an interesting item from the New England Journal of Medicine on the “changing task of medicine”. It looks back at NEJM’s pages from a century ago and more to see how both the technical and social aspects of medicine have changed. (The article cites hopeful remarks, for example, about how eugenics would someday supersede evolution in the “elimination of the unfit”.)

Be sure to look at the excellent interactive charts along the side, illustrating how causes of death have varied over time.

You Don’t Say!

That the mainstream media list hard to port is so obvious to anyone who doesn’t share their reference frame that it’s hardly worth mentioning — or at least it would be so if everyone on the left didn’t deny it so fatiguingly and disingenuously at every opportunity. With that in mind, here’s a refreshing post from Greg Kandra, who “worked for 26 years as a writer and producer for CBS News in both New York and Washington”.

Hardly credible, I suppose, and no doubt just a case of public disgruntlement — but I expect it will lighten our more conservative readers’ shriveled, flinty hearts nevertheless.

After You

The other day I was reading up on Phlebopus marginatus, the Salmon gum mushroom of Western Australia, and noticed that it is “generally recorded as of unknown edibility”.

I was surprised to see that — I mean, is the thing edible, or not? — until I thought about it and realized just what’s involved in answering that question.

Gotta Look Sharp

Call me crazy, but I think this is one rakish alligator.

Rear View

Living is walking backwards. All we can see is where we’ve already been.

Summer In The City

Here’s Arthur Miller, remembering the sweltering New York of his youth. (I doubt I would have survived it.)

More From James Lovelock

Scientist James Lovelock, best known for his development (with Lynn Margulis) of the “Gaia hypothesis” and for his ardent advocacy of radical measures to prevent global warming, surprised us all a little while back when he told MSNBC that in retrospect he thought he had been too “alarmist” about climate change. (It is no small thing to admit that one has been wrong about something one has staked one’s reputation on, and Dr. Lovelock deserves our respect for doing so, and for showing us what it means to be a scientist.)

Now he has given a remarkable interview to the Guardian, in which he pricks a few more green balloons.

On “fracking”:

Gas is almost a give-away in the US at the moment. They’ve gone for fracking in a big way. This is what makes me very cross with the greens for trying to knock it: the amount of CO2 produced by burning gas in a good turbine gives you 60% efficiency. In a coal-fired power station, it is 30% per unit of fuel. So you get a two-to-one gain there straight away. The next two-to-one gain you get is that methane has only got half its energy in the carbon, the other half is in the hydrogen, so there’s a four-to-one gain in CO2 output from the same amount of electricity by burning methane. Let’s be pragmatic and sensible and get Britain to switch everything to methane. We should be going mad on it. The fear of nuclear is now too great after Fukushima and the cost of building new build plants is very expensive and impractical. And it takes a long time to get them running. It is very obvious in America that fracking took almost no time at all to get going. It happened without any debate whatsoever. Suddenly you found there was this abundant fuel source. There’s only a finite amount of it [in the UK] so before it runs out we should really be thinking sensibly about what to do next.

On wind and other “renewable” energy sources:

We rushed into renewable energy without any thought. The schemes are largely hopelessly inefficient and unpleasant. I personally can’t stand windmills at any price. Hydro, biomass, solar, etc, have all got great promise, but they’re not available tomorrow, or even in 10 years. There’s a very good tidal stream farm that I’ve come across using a sunken barge with a turbine on it. It’s much more reliable. They should have gone ahead with the Severn Barrage.

Next comes some strong stuff about European “green” politics:

I’m neither strongly left or right, but I detest the Liberal Democrats. They are all well-meaning, but they have mostly had little experience of power. The coalition [government] has behaved disgraceful[ly] on environmental and energy policies. They haven’t done at all well. It would have been much better if they had been properly rightwing. We haven’t had one for a long time. I don’t mean something like Thatcher; that was a revolutionary Conservative government. Just a regular one. Our political system works because they tend to self-correct each other. What you’ve got to avoid at all costs is ideologues. Germany is a great country and has always been a natural leader of Europe, and so many great ideas, music, art, etc, come out of it, but they have this fatal flaw that they always fall for an ideologue and Europe has suffered intensely from the last two episodes of that. And it looks to me as if the green ideas they have picked up now could be just as damaging. They are burning lignite now to try and make up for switching off nuclear. They call themselves green, but to me this is utter madness. All ideologues are harmful. They are never right. We get to our stable position through checks and balances. The whole of nature does that through natural selection.

Next he offers some gratifyingly frank and realistic commentary on human nature, diversity and multiculturalism (my emphasis):

The problem with ideologues from Marx onwards is that they tend to imagine that human nature is very different from what it actually is. [MP: Leftist ideologues, that is. Right-wing ideologues do the opposite: they seize on the very aspects of human nature that Lovelock mentions here, and play them like a violin.] We’re still animals and we behave like animals and it doesn’t take much to knock our “civilisation” away. People are very, very sensitive about territory and if you move a new lot of people into their territory, they don’t like it one bit. Politicians are very stupid if they think they can get away with that sort of thing. You could easily get me to generalise about things that I’m not really competent to talk about, but I do feel that’s the case. It’s not that people are racist per se. We’re naturally racist, you can’t get away from it. We try to curb it and be sensible. People are very rarely individually racist, but they don’t want a large culture dumped on them. I don’t know anyone personally who would be nasty to someone because of their colour or because they come from a different country. It’s not in our style in these islands.

And here Dr. Lovelock questions the very idea of democracy (has he been spending time over at Moldbug’s?):

….Proportional representation is a very bad idea and an absolute gift to ideologues…. Monarchy is a very good idea, I think. It means there’s no way a politician can dominate. Monarchy ensures that there is someone you can’t beat by being a crafty politician.

On environmental zealots:

One thing being a scientist has taught me is that you can never be certain about anything. You never know the truth. You can only approach it and hope you get a bit nearer to it each time. You iterate towards the truth. You don’t know it. It’s just the way the humans go that if there’s a cause of some sort, a religion starts forming around it. It just so happens that the green religion is now taking over from the Christian religion. I don’t think people have noticed that, but it’s got all the sort of terms that religions use. [MP: Oh yes, we’ve noticed.]

…The greens use guilt. That shows just how religious the greens are. You can’t win people round by saying they are guilty for putting CO2 in the air. We do now know what we are doing when it comes to CO2 [emissions], but you don’t have to go right over the top like the greens and shouting, “You’re guilty!” I don’t like it.

There’s much more. Read the rest here.

Spring And Fall

Working late tonight, with much to catch up on — so for now, just an odd little item about the physics of Slinkies.

That Was Fun

We’re back, after a splendid trip.

Visiting Venice and Florence reminds one just how tall the West’s candle once stood, and on returning home it’s hard not to dwell on how very low it has burned. But that’s just the way of the world, I suppose.

Did I miss anything? I have a lot of catching up to do. We’ll be resuming normal operations shortly.

Service Notice

We’ll likely be off the air until sometime around June 21st: the lovely Nina and I are celebrating our 30th wedding anniversary with a little trip to Italy (Venice and Florence). We’ll have scant access to email and the Internet — and it will be nice to take a little break from all that is evanescent and up-to-the-minute, and instead to nourish and refresh ourselves for a little while amongst the ageless treasures of our dying civilization’s highest art and culture. (Also, we wanted to get to Italy one last time before it closes.)

As always, please feel free to browse the archive and category links on the sidebar, or to take our “Random Post” link for a spin.

Arrivederci!

The Public Enemy

I’ve lived in the Northeast all my life. I like it here. I like the landscape, the culture, and the dramatic cycle of the four seasons (my favorite being autumn). I have no inclination to live anywhere else, and will doubtless make my home here for the rest of my life (unless some combination of ancestral yearnings and American dissolution should one day pull me back to the north of Scotland.)

I was, therefore, a tad chopfallen to learn from Walter Russell Mead this morning that simply by living in New York and Massachusetts I’m destroying the planet.

Story here.

Happy Grass

From the website “prosthetic knowledge” comes this cross-section of a marram-grass leaf:

A Better Mousetrap

Here’s a nifty invention, at least four years in the making. Wonder how long the deregulating will take?

Bokanovsky’s Process

Today’s Times reported that it is now possible to read almost all of a fetus’s genome simply by taking blood from the mother and saliva from the father. Lurking behind the headlines is an idea, once heartily embraced by Progressive intellectuals: eugenics.

Thanks to certain mid-20th-century events, eugenics nowadays is generally thought of as entirely beyond the pale: on a par with slavery, torture, and child labor. (This is largely because it is a manifestation of what is now officially The Very Worst Thing Of All, discrimination.) Eugenics comes in two forms: the bringing into existence of superior stock through selective mating, and the culling of inferior or unwanted strains through sterilization, birth control, and abortion. (Indeed, the founder of Planned Parenthood, Margaret Sanger, made it abundantly clear that her aim was to improve social conditions, and the nation’s human stock, by reducing the number of babies borne by the “unfit”.)

Despite the ostentatious disapproval that greets any whiff of eugenics these days, there is nevertheless an awful lot of culling going on, so it’s pretty clear that it’s not the idea of selective abortions that bothers many people. In particular, the culling of female fetuses seems to be surprisingly popular, both here and abroad. That isn’t eugenics per se, because a) reducing the number of female children does nothing in itself to foster desirable traits or eliminate unwanted ones, and b) the motivation isn’t to improve the community’s human stock, but rather to optimize a private couple’s parenting experience. (This latter motive, which unlike eugenics is based on no altruistic or social goals whatsoever, serves to make sex-based culling even less ethically defensible than eugenics, it seems to me — but people do plenty of it anyway, without evident social opprobrium, or even remorse of conscience.)

So! What will happen when parents can have their fetus’s complete genome in hand for a few drops of blood and spittle? How many of them will bring babies with ghastly, disadvantageous (and more to the point, costly!) hereditary afflictions and deficiencies into the world? Few, I’ll wager. Private choice may soon achieve much of what the old Progressive eugenicists sought to accomplish by government fiat.

Of course, this is only the beginning. Let pass another brief interval, and we will be able not only to read the fetus’s genome with ease, but will also have the ability to modify it as we like — or even to design it from scratch.

Imagine: sitting at a computer screen, the mother and father will select traits from each parent — his nose, perhaps, and her cheekbones — and then sprinkle in custom features taken from a range of available genes on offer from commercial bioengineers. The file representing the finished genome will be uploaded to a manufacturer, who will use the data to generate actual DNA. (This last part is already available — you can send a genome off to have it built for you, and get a little vial of DNA in the mail a few days later.)

Next the mother’s egg will have its nuclear DNA replaced with the customized version, then will be implanted in her womb. (Or maybe not, in a few more years — pregnancy is so inconvenient.) Nine months later, presto! — a bespoke bouncing baby.

Do you think I’m exaggerating what genetic-engineering technology can do, and will soon be able to do? I assure you I am not.

Now all of this will cost money, of course. Not everyone will be able to afford it. And the babies that issue from this process will of course possess all of the innate advantages that a first-rate genome can provide. It seems reasonable to expect, then, that there will be rather a divergence between those who can afford to have their babies this way, and those who can’t.

Should be interesting.

Tactus

This looks promising: touchscreens that can create 3-D buttons as needed.

Long Ago And Far Away

From NASA: a little historical item about a previous transit of Venus.

So Much For The War On Drugs

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s Victory Deals Blow to Unions

Forward!

OK, last item about Wisconsin: for those of you who hadn’t followed the recall campaign, here’s a video clip that should help to explain what happened there yesterday.

The Dow shot up 286 points today.

Sic Transit Venus

Have a look at some impressive photos of yesterday’s astronomical event, here.

Tragedy Of The Commons

Sorry to harp on politics, but the Walker victory in Wisconsin yesterday was an important inflection point, and this recent piece by economist Walter Williams underscores its significance so clearly and straightforwardly that I’m going to reproduce it here in full.

Why was Wisconsin so important? Because the tragedy-of-the-commons effect described here by Williams is amplified and accelerated by the toxic relationship between public-sector unions and the politicians they buy.

Our nation is rapidly approaching a point from which there’s little chance to avoid a financial collapse. The heart of our problem can be seen as a tragedy of the commons. That’s a set of circumstances when something is commonly owned and individuals acting rationally in their own self-interest produce a set of results that’s inimical to everyone’s long-term interest. Let’s look at an example of the tragedy of the commons phenomenon and then apply it to our national problem.

Imagine there are 100 cattlemen all having an equal right to graze their herds on 1,000 acres of commonly owned grassland. The rational self-interested response of each cattleman is to have the largest herd that he can afford. Each cattleman pursing similar self-interests will produce results not in any of the cattlemen’s long-term interest — overgrazing, soil erosion and destruction of the land’s usefulness. Even if they all recognize the dangers, does it pay for any one cattleman to cut the size of his herd? The short answer is no because he would bear the cost of having a smaller herd while the other cattlemen gain at his expense. In the long term, they all lose because the land will be overgrazed and made useless.

We can think of the federal budget as a commons to which each of our 535 congressmen and the president have access. Like the cattlemen, each congressman and the president want to get as much out of the federal budget as possible for their constituents. Political success depends upon “bringing home the bacon.’ Spending is popular, but taxes to finance the spending are not. The tendency is for spending to rise and its financing to be concealed through borrowing and inflation.

Does it pay for an individual congressman to say, “This spending is unconstitutional and ruining our nation, and I’ll have no part of it; I will refuse a $500 million federal grant to my congressional district’? The answer is no because he would gain little or nothing, plus the federal budget wouldn’t be reduced by $500 million. Other congressmen would benefit by having $500 million more for their districts.

What we’re witnessing in Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and other parts of Europe is a direct result of their massive spending to accommodate the welfare state. A greater number of people are living off government welfare programs than are paying taxes. Government debt in Greece is 160 percent of gross domestic product. The other percentages of GDP are 120 in Italy, 104 in Ireland and 106 in Portugal. As a result of this debt and the improbability of their ever paying it, their credit ratings either have reached or are close to reaching junk bond status.

Here’s the question for us: Is the U.S. moving in a direction toward or away from the troubled EU nations? It turns out that our national debt, which was 35 percent of GDP during the 1970s, is now 106 percent of GDP, a level not seen since World War II’s 122 percent. That debt, plus our more than $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities, has led Standard & Poor’s to downgrade our credit rating from AAA to AA+, and the agency is keeping the outlook at “negative’ as a result of its having little confidence that Congress will take on the politically sensitive job of tackling the same type of entitlement that has turned Europe into a basket case.

I am all too afraid that Benjamin Franklin correctly saw our nation’s destiny when he said, “When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.’

Walter E. Williams is a professor of economics at George Mason University.

Because Fat People Are Disgusting

James Lileks weighs in, so to speak, on the soda-ban ruction.

Get Your Yahyas Out!

In which it is demonstrated once again that “Second-In-Command of al-Qaeda” is the world’s most dangerous job.

Taubes On Salt

Here’s Gary Taubes in Sunday’s New York Times, writing about the flimsy case for restricting dietary salt. (Mayor Bloomberg, take note.)

The X-37B

Hmmm

Fighting For Their Right To Party

With the Walker recall election on the morrow — widely regarded as a key American battle in the bitter ideological conflict now convulsing all of the West — here’s a piquant item from Mark Steyn. Excerpt:

[I]n 2012 the advanced Western social-democratic citizen looks pretty similar, whether viewed from Greece or Germany, California or Quebec.

That’s to say, the unsustainable “bubble’ is not student debt or subprime mortgages or anything else. The bubble is us, and the assumptions of entitlement. Too many citizens of advanced Western democracies live a life they have not earned, and are not willing to earn. Indeed, much of our present fiscal woe derives from two phases of human existence that are entirely the invention of the modern world. Once upon a time, you were a kid till you were 13 or so; then you worked; then you died. That bit between childhood and death has been chewed away at both ends. We invented something called “adolescence’ that now extends not merely through the teenage years but through a desultory half decade of Whatever Studies at Complacency U up till you’re 26 and no longer eligible for coverage on your parents’ health-insurance policy. At the other end of the spectrum, we introduced something called “retirement’ that, in the space of two generations, has led to the presumption that able-bodied citizens are entitled to spend the last couple of decades, or one-third of their adult lives, as a long holiday weekend.

The bit in between adolescence and retirement is your working life, and it’s been getting shorter and shorter. Which is unfortunate, as it has to pay for everything else. This structural deformity in the life cycle of Western man is at the root of most of our problems. Staying ever longer in “school’ (I use the term loosely) leads to ever later workplace entry, and ever later (if at all) family formation. Which means that our generation is running up debt that will have to be repaid by our shrunken progeny. One hundred Greek grandparents have 42 Greek grandchildren. Is it likely that 42 Greeks can repay the debts run up by 100 Greeks? No wonder they’d rather stick it to the Germans. But the thriftier Germans have the same deathbed demographics. If 100 Germans resent having to pick up the check for an entire continent, is it likely 42 Germans will be able to do it?

Look around you. The late-20th-century Western lifestyle isn’t going to be around much longer. In a few years’ time, our children will look at old TV commercials showing retirees dancing, golfing, cruising away their sixties and seventies, and wonder what alternative universe that came from. In turn, their children will be amazed to discover that in the early 21st century the Western world thought it entirely normal that vast swathes of the citizenry should while away their youth enjoying what, a mere hundred years earlier, would have been the leisurely varsity of the younger son of a Mitteleuropean Grand Duke.

Read the rest here.

The Call Of Cthulhu

Warning: you won’t be able to unsee this.

Scale Model

My friend G. Orcalimbo Jones (be sure to listen to the live stream of his radio show on WOMR, Fridays at 9 P.M.) has sent us a nifty item: a continuously zoom-able display of our Universe at all scales.

Seen this way, scale itself seems to become a linear dimension of its own.

Have a look here.

Abandon All Hope

Shouldn’t be difficult, after you have a look at this.

Better Boners Through Science

Here.

Loco Parentis

The infantilization of America, and the accelerating subordination of a free people to self-righteous, moralizing, totalitarian bureaucratic busybodies, continues apace. Here.

Sticks And Stones

In a rare online moment over the holiday weekend, I ran across an article in the Daily Mail about how our Department of Homeland Security, in its restless hunt for loquacious malefactors, scans the Internet for alarming words. The article lists scores of examples.

I noted with interest, though, that the list is published on the paper’s website as an image, rather than as text — presumably because the editors of the Mail didn’t want Janet Napolitano and a posse of DHS bruisers paying them a visit in the wee hours. (After all, if a few words from the list are enough to attract attention, publishing the whole thing in a crawler-indexable form would surely be catnip.)

It seems to me that our guardians are casting rather a wide net. Here are some of the words and phrases they’re keeping an eye out for:

cops
drill
swine
initiative
incident
mitigation
facility
response
leak
cloud
biological
collapse
plume
gas
burn
recall
wave
resistant
lightening
[sic]
sick
pork
strain
port
smart
border
enriched
relief
dock
erosion

I suppose I could, without much strain, close out this post with some remarks that would showcase a few of these words in a perfectly innocuous way, just to highlight what some might see as an erosion of our privacy under this cloud of constant surveillance. (You’ll recall that I have a certain facility for such tomfoolery.) But I’m resistant to the idea: it wouldn’t be very smart; there might be an unwelcome response (I could end up in the dock!) — and I doubt any of our readers would be enriched by it. But if you want to ‘drill down’ into the list, you can do so here.

As for me, I’ll just have a glass of port and call it a day. I’m so tired I’m about to collapse.

Service Notice

This space will be mostly quiet for the next few days, as the lovely Nina and I occupy ourselves with spring cleaning, houseguests, and Memorial Day revelry.

Enjoy the holiday weekend!

Small Step, Giant Leap

Singularity University‘s Peter Diamandis talks about the SpaceX Falcon launch. Here.

Photo-cells

Our reader The Big Henry has been sending along some engaging science-related links lately, and he’s just sent me another. This one has to do with the possibility that “biophotons” — light quanta emitted within living cells — may be a channel for some sort of information transfer.

I’ve never heard anything about this until just now (this is something quite distinct from conventional bioluminescence). Learn more here.

Science!

Life just keeps getting better.

Caduceus Ex Machina

From Brad Templeton’s blog: flying telepresence drones as medical first-responders. Here.

Smells Like Team Spirit

Here’s an item that should come as no surprise to anyone:

Religion Is a Potent Force for Cooperation and Conflict, Research Shows

The article discusses a paper by Scott Atran and Jeremy Ginges that describes religion as strongly fostering cooperation within human social groups, as a means of competing more successfully against other groups. We read:

Across history and cultures, religion increases trust within groups but also may increase conflict with other groups, according to an article in a special issue of Science.

“Moralizing gods, emerging over the last few millennia, have enabled large-scale cooperation and sociopolitical conquest even without war,” says University of Michigan anthropologist Scott Atran, lead author of the article with Jeremy Ginges of the New School for Social Research.
“Sacred values sustain intractable conflicts like those between the Israelis and the Palestinians that defy rational, business-like negotiation. But they also provide surprising opportunities for resolution.”

As evidence for their claim that religion increases trust within groups but may increase conflict with other groups, Atran and Ginges cite a number of studies among different populations. These include cross-cultural surveys and experiments in dozens of societies showing that people who participate most in collective religious rituals are more likely to cooperate with others, and that groups most intensely involved in conflict have the costliest and most physically demanding rituals to galvanize group solidarity in common defense and blind group members to exit strategies. Secular social contracts are more prone to defection, they argue. Their research also indicates that participation in collective religious ritual increases parochial altruism and, in relevant contexts, support for suicide attacks.

They also identify what they call the “backfire effect,” which dooms many efforts to broker peace. In many studies that Atran and Ginges carried out with colleagues in Palestine, Israel, Iran, India, Indonesia and Afghanistan, they found that offers of money or other material incentives to compromise sacred values increased anger and opposition to a deal.

… This dynamic is behind the paradoxical reality that the world finds itself in today: “Modern multiculturalism and global exposure to multifarious values is increasingly challenged by fundamentalist movements to revive primary group loyalties through greater ritual commitments to ideological purity.”

We’ve been making this point here for years: religion is a strongly adaptive feature of human social and cognitive architecture, an innate propensity for which is almost certainly the result of the action of group-level selection in our evolutionary history. As I’ve argued in these pages, I suspect (with sadness, given that I’m an unbeliever myself) that secularism is strongly maladaptive for human groups (see this post, and the comment thread here, for example).

The authors of the linked article nevertheless express hope that a better understanding of this dynamic may enable negotiators to work around it:

But Atran and Ginges also offer some insights that could help to solve conflicts fueled by religious conviction. Casting these conflicts as sacred initially blocks standard business-like negotiation tactics. But making strong symbolic gestures such as sincere apologies and demonstrations of respect for the other’s values generates surprising flexibility, even among militants and political leaders, and may enable subsequent material negotiations, they point out.

I doubt it. Have, for example, the West’s repeated prostrations before the global Ummah brought us anything but contempt? Have they brought us any closer to harmony in the Middle East? It hardly seems that way. Nor have well-intentioned pow-wows between the leaders of incompatible faiths ever achieved much of anything at all, so far as I can make out — as predicted by Pollack’s Law of Interfaith Dialogue (as first articulated back in May 2010):

To the extent that dialogue between any two religions is necessary, it is unproductive, and to the extent that it is productive, it is unnecessary.

I see no reason to imagine this principle will be superseded anytime soon.

Lower than 100%?

Coffee Drinkers Have Lower Risk of Death, Study Suggests

HDL Loses Its Halo?

Here’s an interesting item:

“Good’ Cholesterol Not So Good After All, New Study Shows

The revelation that high-density lipoprotein, or HDL, is the “good cholesterol’ has suffered a major blow. A meta-study involving over a hundred thousand participants used two different strategies to see if genetic mutations that increased levels of HDL also decreased risk for heart disease. In both cases the answer was a resounding no. The researchers were shocked when they saw the data. Now it’s their turn to shock HDL proponents and drug companies looking to cash in on the HDL craze.

The study, which was published recently in The Lancet, is causing quite a stir in the field. As Dr. James de Lemos, from the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, told the New York Times, “I’d say the HDL hypothesis is on the ropes right now.’ Dr. de Lemos was not involved in the study.

So what’s the story here? How is it possible that LDL/HDL dichotomy has propagated so powerfully through conventional wisdom that even the CDC refers to them as “good’ and “bad’ cholesterols and pharmaceutical companies like Abbot Laboratories are working hard to get in on the HDL cash cow?

Past studies have shown that much of what increases our risk for heart disease, like obesity, lack of exercise, smoking, and insulin resistance, is correlated with low HDL. It was a logical conclusion, then, that by increased HDL levels we could decrease those risks. But correlation doesn’t mean causation, and the takeaway conclusion from the current study is that decreased HDL is simply a sign of increased risk for heart disease but the level of HDL doesn’t actually affect heart disease.

Next, perhaps: LDL doesn’t cause heart disease, either.

The Great Game

A few months ago one of our readers reader kindly sent me a copy of The Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics, by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. I finally got around to reading it, and recommend it to you all.

Here’s the publisher’s summary over at Amazon:

For eighteen years, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith have been part of a team revolutionizing the study of politics by turning conventional wisdom on its head. They start from a single assertion: Leaders do whatever keeps them in power. They don’t care about the “national interest’””or even their subjects””unless they have to.

This clever and accessible book shows that the difference between tyrants and democrats is just a convenient fiction. Governments do not differ in kind but only in the number of essential supporters, or backs that need scratching. The size of this group determines almost everything about politics: what leaders can get away with, and the quality of life or misery under them. The picture the authors paint is not pretty. But it just may be the truth, which is a good starting point for anyone seeking to improve human governance.

The central idea is hardly a new one: that the best approach to reverse-engineering the behavior of politicians is to assume that their primary motivation, and the criterion according to which all their decisions are made, is the acquisition and retention of power. But what the authors have done with this book is to use this idea to build a consistent quantitative and predictive model, based on the relative sizes of three coalitions: the general “selectorate”, a much smaller group of “influentials”, and most important of all, the “essentials”: that collection of individuals who must be kept happy in order for the leader to retain his grip on power.

The authors did particularly well, I thought, in their analysis of how different sorts of governments (as characterized by their relative coalition sizes) interact with each other, particularly as regards war and foreign aid. That chapter alone was worth the price of admission.

As is always the case with these ‘here’s-the-big-new-idea-that-explains-everything’ books, I found myself disagreeing with some of the tendentious conclusions and recommendations the authors presented in the final chapter — but I understand that everybody’s got an axe to grind, and none of it was enough to seriously detract from what I think was a very insightful and useful intellectual effort. Go and get a copy.

Cue Chumbawumba

Attention, readers: Radio Derb is back. John Derbyshire, following his defenestration by National Review, has dusted himself off and taken his weekly podcast over to Taki’s.

So far, there are three new installments. Have a listen here. And speaking of Derb, here’s a recent essay of his, also at Taki’s: Ridding Myself of the Day.

Engendered Species

From time to time in these pages we have noted the accelerating caponization of the Western male, as the grand project to bring the sexes into complete convergence somewhere deep in distaff territory continues apace.

Fortunately, there are still a few pockets of resistance.

Crowdsyncing

Here’s a novel approach to implementing coordinated behavior in a non-hierarchical “swarm” of autonomous machines:

Biologists have long puzzled over the ability of bacteria and social insects to sense not only the presence of compatriots but their number and to synchronise their behaviour.

It turns out that these creatures perform this synchronisation using a process called quorum sensing. This works by constantly releasing signalling molecules into the environment while at the same time measuring the local concentration of these molecules.

This concentration rises as more creatures join the local population and so is an effective measure of population density. When the concentration rises over some threshold level, it triggers a different behaviour such cell division, pathogen production and nest building.

Now [Patrick Bechon and Jean-Jacques Slotine at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge] say a similar approach provides a robust way to synchronise humanoid robots. The ideal approach to synchronisation is for each robot to have access to every other robot’s position. Instead, the quorum sensing approach gives, each robot access to a global variable such as the average position or average clock time. Each robot can also change this variable because it contributes to the average.

The idea is that if each robot attempts to synchronise with this global average, the swarm as whole should keep good time.

This insight seems applicable to much more than the dancing robots shown in the linked article. For example, the movement of the center of gravity of social and cultural trends over time surely involves some “quorum sensing” on the part of individuals, followed by “attempts to synchronize with this global average”.